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A Practical Approach for Decision-Making on Preliminary Naval Ship Cost Estimating Using Multiple Cost Estimation Methods

  • Kevin E. PatrónEmail author
  • Luis D. Leal
  • Omar D. Vasquez
Conference paper
  • 197 Downloads

Abstract

Reliable cost estimating is a key element to effectively manage complex naval ship projects. To conduct the estimates, selecting the appropriate method is of great importance. There may be more than one applicable method, depending on the level of the project definition and the availability of cost, technical and economic data. For instance, analogy-based and parametric estimating methods are commonly used during concept development phases. Thus, multiple cost estimating results could be obtained. It becomes necessary to apply an additional rational method to get a conclusive cost estimation that best represents the results of the involved methods. Since the results of each estimation can be presented as a set of probability distribution functions, we suggest for this a practical approach based on the derivation of an aggregated cost probability distribution function. This approach exploits an existing methodology which aims the maximization of the consensus among the assessed cost probability distribution functions. Herein that consensus is defined as the sum of the overlapping areas between each cost probability distribution function and the aggregated cost distribution function. To solve the corresponding optimization problem, a modern heuristic optimization algorithm is used to ensure global optimal solutions. We believe the proposed approach may enhance the decision-making process on naval ships project management at early stages.

Keywords

Preliminary cost estimation Naval ship Decision-making 

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  • Kevin E. Patrón
    • 1
    Email author
  • Luis D. Leal
    • 1
  • Omar D. Vasquez
    • 1
  1. 1.Design and Engineering OfficeCOTECMARCartagenaColombia

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