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Fuzzy-Multiple Modeling for the Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Cenosis

  • Alexander N. KuzminovEmail author
  • Natalia G. Korostieva
  • Ahmed I. Khazuev
  • Oleg A. Ternovsky
Conference paper
Part of the Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing book series (AISC, volume 1095)

Abstract

The article considers a new approach to the formation of a model of fuzzy-multiple analysis and forecasting the development of socio-economic systems with cenosis’s features. The authors of the article proceed from the consideration that the use of fuzzy logic for analysis, forecasting and modeling economic phenomena and processes is justified by high performance and the prospect of using in the conditions of increasing uncertainty, but it is constrained by the lack of special research methods. The existing problem of the qualitative development of models in the field of fuzzy sets, soft calculations and approximate reasoning, used for dealing with numerous applied problems, can be solved by means of an interdisciplinary synthesis of related academic disciplines’ achievements, including a new scientific direction - cenology. The key point of such integration is the possibility of expert-analytical support of key procedures, namely: the description of the probability distribution function for possible values; operations on fuzzy numbers within the bounds of the calculated confidence interval of such a function; soft computing based on using regularities of the distribution of prime numbers; dynamic modeling in the form of fuzzy cognitive models (Fuzzy Cognitive Maps). The resulting model demonstrates the practical implementation of fuzzy sets and soft computing for economic and financial tasks, which is confirmed by the results of empirical research.

Keywords

Economic cenosis Cognitive modeling Fuzzy-multiply method 

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Rostov State University of EconomicsRostov-on-DonRussian Federation
  2. 2.South-Russian State Polytechnic University (NPI)NovocherkasskRussian Federation
  3. 3.Chechen State UniversityGroznyRussian Federation

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