Technological Revolution in the 21st Century: Digital Society vs. Artificial Intelligence
Purpose: The purpose of the research is to determine the scenarios of socio-economic development of Russia under the influence of technological revolution in the 21st century, until 2030.
Design/methodology/approach: The authors determine the causal connections of the technological revolution in the 21st century with the help of the materials of a statistical collection of the National Research University “Higher School of Economics” “Digital economy – 2019”, which reflect the factors that restrain the usage of the Internet (as the most revolutionary technology of modern times) by the population.
Findings: It is substantiated that the technological revolution in the 21st century is a very complex and variable process, which could take place according to one of the three scenarios, depending on formation of digital society and adoption of artificial intelligence. Scenario of deintellectualization is most probable in modern Russia, and its signs are seen as of now. It envisages low level of development of the digital society and low interest of consumers in artificial intelligence due to insufficient marketing support. That’s why investment flows will be redirected in favor of conventionally revolutionary (not providing completely new opportunities) intellectual technologies. Scenario of segmental intellectualization is also rather probably in Russia, as it is traditionally peculiar for the processes of innovative development of the Russian economy (e.g., it could be realized during dissemination of mobile communications). This scenario envisages elitism of artificial intelligence until 2030, due to its high cost. Scenario of intellectual breakthrough is most probable, but least probable in Russia. It is connected to mass dissemination of artificial intelligence – in entrepreneurship, consumption, and state management. The key condition of its implementation is active marketing support for artificial intelligence.
Originality/value: The described scenarios reduce uncertainty and open wide opportunities and perspectives for state management of technological revolution in modern Russia.
KeywordsTechnological revolution Digital society Artificial intelligence Russia
JEL CodeD74 M31 O31 O32 O33 O38
The research has been performed with financial support from the Russian Foundation for Fundamental Research within scientific project No. 18-010-00103 A.
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