Study on Fluctuation and Regulation of Potato Market Price in China: Based on the View of Stable Crop for the Potato

  • Qianyou Zhang
  • Xinxin XuEmail author
  • Yuanling Zhang
  • Yuerong Zheng
  • Jinqiu Tian
Conference paper
Part of the Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing book series (AISC, volume 1002)


By utilizing the monthly potato market price data from 2011 to 2015 and time series model such as X11 seasonal adjustment method and H-P (Hodrick–Prescott) filtering method, this paper analyzes the period and rule of potato market price fluctuation. The study found that the peak of the National Potato Price Index appears around every May, the lowest point appears around every October, the highest and lowest points appear alternately each year. In the past 5 years, the potato price fluctuation in China is large, the fluctuation frequency is high, on the average, the drop of peak and valley variation rate is 42.18%, the average rising month for each cycle is 7.25 months, with an average cycle length of 14.25 months.


Potato Market price Fluctuation cycle Empirical study 



This research is supported by The Strategic Research Center on Stable Crop for the Potato(Grant NO.MLS1801).


  1. 1.
    China Potato Network Data Center [EB/OL] (2018)
  2. 2.
    Cong, Z.: Study on price conduction effect of potato production and marketing. Ph.D. thesis, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Chengdu (in Chinese) (2014)Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Cai, H.: A probe into the causes of potato price fluctuation in china. Price Theory Pract. 9, 64–65 (2013)Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    La Via, G., Nucifora, A., Cucuzza, G.: Short term forecasting of vegetables prices in sicily. In: VI International Symposium on Protected Cultivation in Mild Winter Climate: Product and Process Innovation, vol. 614, pp. 857–862 (2002)Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Li, G., Xu, S., Li, Z.: Short-term price forecasting for agro-products using artificial neural networks. Agric. Agric. Sci. Proc. 1, 278–287 (2010)Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Li, J., Q, X.: Principles of statistical science. Master’s thesis, Fudan University Press, Shanghai (in Chinese) (2004)Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Liu, F., Guo, R., Wang, C.: Study on the fluctuation law of pig production in china. Agric. Outlook 4, 28–31 (2011)Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Liu, F., He, Z.: Study on price fluctuation and formation mechanism of fresh fruit and vegetable products in China. Master’s thesis, China Agricultural Press, Shanghai (in Chinese) (2012)Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Liu, Y., Luo, q.: Study on volatility of potato wholesale market price in china. Chin. Veg. 7(170), 14–19 (2011)Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    Mao, X., Zeng, Y.: Price cycle recognition of pigs based on time series decomposition. China’s Rural. Econ. 12, 4–13 (2008)Google Scholar
  11. 11.
    Mi, J., Gao, Q., et al.: A supply and demand equilibrium forecast of potato in medium and long term. Chin. J. Agric. Resour. Reg. Plan. 6, 27–34 (2015)Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    Qu, D., Xie, K.: 2015 beijing world potato congress paper excerpt-sustainable development of china’s potato industry. Agric. Mark. Wkly. 29, 26–26 (2015)Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    Ricci, U.: Die, synthetische ökonomie von henry ludwell moore. J. Econ. 1(5), 649–668 (1930)Google Scholar
  14. 14.
    Schultz, H.: The standard error of a forecast from a curve. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 25(170), 139–185 (1930)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. 15.
    Tinbergen, J.: Bestimmung und deutung von angebotskurven ein beispiel. Zeitschrift für Nationalökonomie 1(5), 669–679 (1930)CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  • Qianyou Zhang
    • 1
  • Xinxin Xu
    • 1
    Email author
  • Yuanling Zhang
    • 2
  • Yuerong Zheng
    • 1
  • Jinqiu Tian
    • 1
  1. 1.Business SchoolChengdu UniversityChengduPeople’s Republic of China
  2. 2.The Strategic Research Center on Stable Crop for the PotatoXichang UniversityXichangPeople’s Republic of China

Personalised recommendations