Spatiotemporal Analysis and Data Mining of the 2014–2016 Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in West Africa
This study investigates the spatiotemporal pattern of the 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in the most heavily affected countries in West Africa and also mines the spatial associations between such pattern and other geographically distributed factors. Utilizing the publicly available open-source data, this study demonstrates a research design that integrates various geospatial data processing, analysis, and data-mining techniques to achieve the research objectives. For the 2014 EVD epidemic, spatiotemporal patterns were analyzed and visualized. Fine-grained population data were obtained through a population interpolation method to conduct healthcare accessibility analysis. Finally, associations between the spatiotemporal patterns of the incidences and healthcare accessibility as well as other factors were examined. The results suggest that (1) poor accessibility to healthcare facilities and EVD clusters are identified in many urban areas as well as some remote areas; and (2) EVD cases were more likely to be found in border areas of these countries where accessibility to healthcare facilities is poorer.
KeywordsEbola epidemic Spatiotemporal analysis Spatial data mining GIS Healthcare accessibility
- Baize, S., et al. (2014). Emergence of Zaire Ebola virus disease in Guinea—Preliminary report. The New England Journal of Medicine, 371(15), 1418–1425.Google Scholar
- Carroll, M.W., et al. (2015). Temporal and spatial analysis of the 2014–2015 Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa. Nature, 524(7563), 97.Google Scholar
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2016). Outbreaks chronology: Ebola virus disease. Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/history/chronology.html.
- D’Silva, J. P., & Eisenberg, M. C. (2017). Modeling spatial invasion of Ebola in West Africa. Journal of theoretical biology, 428, 65–75.Google Scholar
- Ganguly, S. (2014). Ebola hemorrhagic fever: A review on global facts, concepts and public health issues. World Journal of Pharmaceutical Research, 3(9), 401–404.Google Scholar
- Green, A. (2014). Ebola emergency meeting establishes new control centre. The Lancet, 384(9938), 118. Available at: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140673614611478.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Kiskowski, M. (2014). Description of the early growth dynamics of 2014 West Africa Ebola epidemic. arXiv preprint arXiv:1410.5409.Google Scholar
- Koperski, K., & Han, J. (1995). Discovery of spatial association rules in geographic information databases. In International Symposium on Spatial Databases (pp. 47–66). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.Google Scholar
- Kramer, A. M., et al. (2016). Spatial spread of the West Africa Ebola epidemic. Dryad Digital Repository, 3, 160294.Google Scholar
- Kulldorff, M., et al. (2004). Benchmark data and power calculations for evaluating disease outbreak detection methods. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 53, 144–151.Google Scholar
- Leibovici, D., et al. (2007). Extracting Dynamics of Multiple Indicators for Spatial recognition of Ecoclimatic zones in Circum-Saharan Africa. GISRUK 2007, 114.Google Scholar
- Lian, M., et al. (2007). Using geographic information systems and spatial and space-time scan statistics for a population-based risk analysis of the 2002 equine West Nile epidemic in six contiguous regions of Texas. International Journal of Health Geographics, 10, 1–10.Google Scholar
- Luo, W., & Qi, Y. (2009). An enhanced two-step floating catchment area (E2SFCA) method for measuring spatial accessibility to primary care physicians. Health & Place, 15(4), 1100–1107.Google Scholar
- Radke, J., & Mu, L. (2000). Spatial decompositions, modeling and mapping service regions to predict access to social programs. Geographic Information Sciences, 6(2), 105–112.Google Scholar
- Shaman, J., Yang, W., & Kandula, S. (2014). Inference and forecast of the current West African Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. PLoS Currents, 6. https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.3408774290b1a0f2dd7cae877c8b8ff6.
- Tango, T., Takahashi, K., & Kohriyama, K. (2011). A Space-Time Scan Statistic for Detecting Emerging Outbreaks. Biometrics, 67(1), 106–115.Google Scholar
- Yang, W., et al. (2015). Transmission network of the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface/the Royal Society, 12(112), 204–211. Available at: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26559683, http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC4685836.CrossRefGoogle Scholar