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Demographic Accounting Models

  • Peter A. Morrison
  • Thomas M. Bryan
Chapter

Abstract

How does the intrinsic voting strength of two groups with different adult age structures compare? How does the annual maturation of juvenile cohorts into adult voters gradually augment a group’s voting strength over time? Answers to these questions can account for why one group registers or votes at higher rates than another. This chapter furnishes two useful demographic accounting models: one, for making an “apples to apples” comparison of political participation across groups where differing age structures obscure a true comparison; the other, to foresee the effects over time of juvenile cohorts maturing into adult voters, strengthening that group’s political participation over time.

Keywords

Age standardization Cohort progression Forecasting Voting strength Voter turnout 

References

  1. Morrison, P. 2014. Quantifying the effect of age structure on voter registration. Social Science Quarterly 95 (1): 286–294.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. ———. unpublished. Forecasting Hispanic voting strength at local scales. Presented at 2014 applied demography conference, San Antonio.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Peter A. Morrison
    • 1
  • Thomas M. Bryan
    • 2
  1. 1.Peter A. Morrison & AssociatesNantucketUSA
  2. 2.Bryan GeoDemographicsMidlothianUSA

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