In this paper, we analyze social forecasting methods using ideas that stand in as determinants of social development of civilization. An attempt is made to explain how an image of ideal future is modeled in terms of values and ideals of social order. Potentiality and necessity of a change in the future and aspirations for an optimal social order are seen as a major focus of futures studies. Evolution of social ideals and ways to recognize patterns in history prediction are considered.

Content of values in the composition of social ideal was identified. Research into the structure of social ideal, anticipated dynamics and stages of externalization of ideal was made. We emphasize the role and significance of creative consciousness evolution in a complex and multi-aspect process of advancement of the future of civilization.

In this context, a number of domestic and foreign conceptions providing insights into the risks of global civilization (based on a classification as a tool of scientific inquiry) are analyzed consistent with the strategies and tactics of civilization future prediction. We also pay attention to the issues of integration and differentiation of global processes, and to recognition of real danger to the humans to survive as a species on Earth.


Values Ideals as prediction tools Future of civilization Modeling Global issues Futures studies 


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Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Far Eastern State Transport University LineKhabarovskRussia

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