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Approximate Risk Function for Project Durations

  • Ivan Damnjanovic
  • Kenneth Reinschmidt
Chapter
Part of the Risk, Systems and Decisions book series (RSD)

Abstract

In this chapter we discuss the application of the second moment method in scheduling networks. The issue we focus here is on finding the probability distribution for the project completion time when there are multiple network paths in the project and therefore the critical path is itself uncertain. We present an approximate method to this problem and discuss its validity in a larger managerial context.

Keywords

Scheduling networks Longest path Approximate methods Probability distribution 

References

  1. Keefer DL, Bodily SL (1983) Three-point approximations for continuous random variables. Manag Sci 29(5):595–609CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. MacCrimmon KR, Ryavec CA (1964) Analytical study of the PERT assumptions. Oper Res 12(1):16–37CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. McCabe B (2003) Construction engineering and project management III: Monte Carlo simulation for schedule risks. In: Proceedings of the 35th conference on Winter simulation: driving innovation. Winter Simulation Conference, pp 1561–1565Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ivan Damnjanovic
    • 1
  • Kenneth Reinschmidt
    • 2
  1. 1.Texas A&M UniversityCollege StationUSA
  2. 2.College StationUSA

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