Advertisement

Estimating Means, Variances, and Correlations Based on Experts’ Judgment

  • Ivan Damnjanovic
  • Kenneth Reinschmidt
Chapter
Part of the Risk, Systems and Decisions book series (RSD)

Abstract

In this chapter we introduce the methods to estimate statistical moments and correlation coefficient based on expert judgements. We provide an overview of probability density functions that are suitable for integration with subjective data, and the elicitation procedures for estimating correlation coefficients.

Keywords

Expert judgements Statistical moments Correlation Probability distribution 

References

  1. Clark CE (1962) The PERT model for the distribution of an activity time. Oper Res 10(3):405–416CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Davidson LB, Cooper DO (1976) A simple way of developing a probability distribution of present value. J Pet Technol 28(9):1069–1078CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Keefer DL, Bodily SL (1983) Three-point approximations for continuous random variables. Manag Sci 29(5):595–609CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. King EP, Sampson CB, Simms LL (1975) An alternative to Monte Carlo sampling in stochastic models. Manag Sci 21(6):649–657CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Malcolm DG, Roseboom JH, Clark CE, Fazar W (1959) Application of a technique for research and development program evaluation. Oper Res 7(5):646–669CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Megill RE (1977) An introduction to risk analysis. Petroleum Publishing Company, TulsaGoogle Scholar
  7. Pearson ES, Tukey JW (1965) Approximate means and standard deviations based on distances between percentage points of frequency curves. Biometrika 52(3–4):533–546MathSciNetCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Perry C, Greig ID (1975) Estimating the mean and variance of subjective distributions in PERT and decision analysis. Manag Sci 21(12):1477–1480CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Project Management Institute (2008) A guide to the project management body of knowledge, 4th edn. Newtown Square, PennsylvaniaGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ivan Damnjanovic
    • 1
  • Kenneth Reinschmidt
    • 2
  1. 1.Texas A&M UniversityCollege StationUSA
  2. 2.College StationUSA

Personalised recommendations