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Bayesian Revision of Probability Estimates

  • Ivan Damnjanovic
  • Kenneth Reinschmidt
Chapter
Part of the Risk, Systems and Decisions book series (RSD)

Abstract

In this chapter we introduce Bayesian methods for updating model parameters based on new project-specific data. We provide formal introduction of Bayes theorem to update parameters of probability distributions used in project risk analysis. We discuss examples of updating the probability of arrival of machine breakdown and new change orders using Bayes theorem.

Keywords

Bayes law Estimation of parameter distribution Poisson process 

References

  1. DeGroot MH, Schervish MJ (2012) Probability and statistics. Pearson Education, BostonGoogle Scholar
  2. Forbes C, Evans M, Hastings N, Peacock B (2011) Statistical distributions. Wiley, HobokenzbMATHGoogle Scholar
  3. Kingman JFC (1992) Poisson processes, vol 3. Clarendon Press, OxfordzbMATHGoogle Scholar
  4. Touran A (2003) Probabilistic model for cost contingency. J Constr Eng Manag 129(3):280–284CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ivan Damnjanovic
    • 1
  • Kenneth Reinschmidt
    • 2
  1. 1.Texas A&M UniversityCollege StationUSA
  2. 2.College StationUSA

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