The Effects of the Number of Chinese Visitors on Commercial Sales in Japan
In this study, we focus on tourist expenditure on shopping at travel destinations. As a concrete example, we analyze the dependence of commercial sales in Japan on the number of Chinese visitors and the general consumption index. The dynamics of the relationships are also analyzed. To manage the difficulties in analyzing the dynamics, we construct a set of dynamic regression models involving time-varying coefficients, which are estimated using a Bayesian smoothness priors approach. The empirical study is based on commercial sales data for each retail sector in Japan over the period from 2003.1 to 2017.4.
KeywordsEffects of chinese visitors Dynamics analysis Bayesian model Japanese economy
The author would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions, which have contributed to improving the readability and quality of this paper. This work is supported in part by a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C) (16K03591) from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. The author also thanks Geoff Whyte, MBA, from Edanz Group (www.edanzediting.com/ac) for editing a draft of this manuscript.
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