Mathematical Models and Algorithms for the Management of Liquidation Process of Floods Consequences

  • Maria KhamutovaEmail author
  • Alexander Rezchikov
  • Vadim Kushnikov
  • Vladimir Ivaschenko
  • Elena Kushnikova
  • Andrey Samartsev
Conference paper
Part of the Studies in Systems, Decision and Control book series (SSDC, volume 199)


A problem statement of management of liquidation process of floods consequences was formulated. The model of forecasting floods consequences affecting the amount of damage is proposed as a model of control object. A positive and negative feedbacks between system variables and external factors affecting the dynamics of object are taken into account in this model. The model was developed on the basis of system dynamics and is represented by a system of differential equations. The results of solution of system of differential equations were compared to a real data of the flood that occurred in Primorye in 2001. The algorithm of solving the problem of management of liquidation process of floods consequences in which a control functions are presented in the form of the action plans aimed at reducing the characteristics of floods consequences was developed. Selection of optimal action plan is based on a comparison of the calculated values of the cost function for each action plan from a set of action plans.


Management of liquidation process of floods consequences Model of forecasting floods consequences System dynamics 


  1. 1.
    Natural Catastrophes 2015: Analyses, assessments, positions. Topics Geo, p. 82. Munich Re, Munich (2016)Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Adams, T.E., Pagano, T.C.: Flood Forecasting – A Global Perspective, p. 480. Academic Press, Cambridge (2016)Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Sene, K.: Flood Warning, Forecasting and Emergency Response, p. 303. Springer, Berlin (2008)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    Forrester, Jay W.: World Dynamics, 2nd edn. Productivity Press, Portland (1973)Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Sadovnichiy, V., Akayev, A., Korotayev, A., Malkov, S.: Modelling and forecasting world dynamics. In: Scientific Council for Economics and Sociology of Knowledge Fundamental Research Programme of the Presidium of the RAS, RAS ISPR, Moscow (2012). (in Russian)Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    State Standard 22.0.06-97/State Standard 22.0.06-95: Safety in emergencies. The sources of natural emergencies. Injuring factors. Nomenclature of parameters of injuring influences. (in Russian)Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Khamutova, M., Rezchikov, A., Kushnikov, V., Ivashchenko, V., Bogomolov, A., Filimonyuk, L., Dolinina, O., Kushnikova, E., Shulga, T., Tverdokhlebov, V., Fominykh, D.: Forecasting characteristics of flood effects. J. Phys.: Conf. Ser. 1015, 052012 (2018). Scholar
  8. 8.
    Vorobiev,Yu., Akimov, V., Sokolov, Yu.: Catastrophic Floods of the Beginning of the XXI Century: Lessons and Conclusions. Dex-Press, Moscow, p. 352 (2003). (in Russian)Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Franco, E.F., Hirama, K., Carvalho, M.: Applying system dynamics approach in software and information system projects: a mapping study. Inf. Softw. Technol. 93, 58–73 (2018)CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Saratov State UniversitySaratovRussia
  2. 2.Institute of Precision Mechanics and Control of RASSaratovRussia
  3. 3.Institute of Control Problems of the Russian Academy of ScienceMoscowRussia

Personalised recommendations