A Probabilistic Approach for Trade-off Analysis of Composite Wing Structures at the Conceptual Phase of Design

  • Konstantinos BacharoudisEmail author
  • Thomas Turner
  • Atanas Popov
  • Svetan Ratchev
Conference paper
Part of the IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology book series (IFIPAICT, volume 530)


One of the major elements when performing a design for manufacturing and assembly methodology is the cost modelling method. A probabilistic cost approach is introduced herein for the series production of a composite wing structure. The proposed methodology should be able to capture changes in the design, the materials and the fabrication processes. Critically, the assembly strategy of the product should also be included to enable realistic multi-disciplinary trade-off studies among several potential build philosophies of the wing structure at the early phase of the design. Furthermore, uncertainty related to the various input parameters, i.e. production, process and cost parameters due to incomplete knowledge, can be considered. Thus, the main effort of the present work is to set up the framework of this methodology, to develop the appropriate cost approach in order to capture manufacturing and assembly costs and further to establish a sensitivity analysis module in order to clarify the dominant cost-drivers of the product. To deal with the uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulation is implemented while Spearman’s correlation coefficients are evaluated and used to perform the sensitivity study. The efficacy of the suggested methodology is demonstrated by comparing a traditional wing design against new more integrated manufacturing techniques, e.g. the co-curing process, for a simplified wing configuration.


Cost modelling DFMA Composite wing Process plan Monte Carlo simulation 



This project has received funding from the Clean Sky 2 Joint Undertaking (JU) under grant agreement No 671436. The JU receives support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme and the Clean Sky 2 JU members other than the Union.


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Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.University of NottinghamNottinghamUK

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