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EMD-Based Recurrent Neural Network with Adaptive Regrouping for Port Cargo Throughput Prediction

  • Yan Li
  • Ryan Wen Liu
  • Quandang Ma
  • Jingxian Liu
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 11301)

Abstract

Accurate prediction of port cargo throughput (PCT) plays an important role in economic investment, transportation planning, port planning and design, etc. PCT time series have the properties of nonlinearity and complexity. To guarantee high-quality prediction performance, we propose to first adopt the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) to decompose the original PCT time series into high and low frequency components. It is more difficult to predict some components due to their properties of weak mathematical regularity. To take advantage of the selfsimilarities within components, each component will be divided into several small parts which are adaptive regrouped (ARG) via the standardized euclidean distance (SED)-based similarity measure. The regrouped parts are then selected to form the training dataset for long short-term memory (LSTM) to enhance the prediction accuracy of each component. The final prediction result can be obtained by integrating the predicted components. Our proposed three-step prediction framework (called EMD-ARG-LSTM) benefits from the property decomposition and adaptive similarity regrouping. Experimental results have illustrated the superior performance of the proposed method in terms of both prediction accuracy and robustness.

Keywords

Port cargo throughput Prediction Long short-term memory Empirical mode decomposition Similarity regrouping 

Notes

Acknowledgment

This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.: 51609195 and 51479156), Fund of Hubei Key Laboratory of Transportation Internet of Things (No.: WHUTIOT-2017B003), and Independent Innovation Research Funding for Undergraduates (No.: 2018-HY-A1-01).

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Hubei Key Laboratory of Inland Shipping Technology, School of NavigationWuhan University of TechnologyWuhanChina
  2. 2.Hubei Key Laboratory of Transportation Internet of Things, School of Computer Science and TechnologyWuhan University of TechnologyWuhanChina

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