Advertisement

Dynamics and Control of HIV/AIDS in Cyprus Using Real Data

  • Evren Hincal
  • Tamer SanlidagEmail author
  • Farouk Tijjani Saad
  • Kaya Suer
  • Isa Abdullahi Baba
  • Murat Sayan
  • Bilgen Kaymakamzade
  • Nazife Sultanoglu
Conference paper
Part of the Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing book series (AISC, volume 896)

Abstract

This article presents a mathematical model that studies the dynamics of HIV in North and South Cyprus. The global stability of the two equilibrium points involved are disease-free and endemic, and are performed using Lyapunov function. We have showed that the stability is dependent on the magnitude of the basic reproduction number \( R_{0} \). If \( R_{0} < 1 \), the disease free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable and the disease vanishes, whereas if \( R_{0} \ge 1 \), the endemic equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable and epidemics will occur. Real data obtained from the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus Ministry of Health is used to examine and predict the progress of HIV in North Cyprus, as well as comparing our results with South Cyprus using their published data. Reported HIV positive cases of only Turkish and Greek Cypriots were included from the data obtained from Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus Ministry of Health and South Cyprus data, respectively. The results showed that, the basic reproduction number of North and South Cyprus are 0.00012 and 0.00034 respectively; which are less than one; hence, this indicates that there is currently no epidemic in the country. Furthermore, the number of HIV positive individuals in North Cyprus is likely to increase by almost 50%, whereas for South Cyprus an increase of 100% of the initial value (of 2017) is estimated in the next 20 years. Thus, the authorities should take the necessary actions and strategic measures for controlling the spread of the disease.

Keywords

HIV Basic reproduction number Cyprus Lyapunov function Stability 

References

  1. 1.
    Kaymakamzade, B., Şanlıdağ, T., Hıncal, E., Sayan, M., Saad, F.T., Baba İ.B.: Role of awareness in controlling HIV/AIDS: a mathematical model. Qual Quant (2017)  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-017-0640-2CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. 2.
  3. 3.
    WHO HIV/AIDS Global Health Observatory (GHO) data. http://www.who.int/gho/hiv/en/. Accessed 18 July 2016
  4. 4.
    WHO HIV/AIDS Key facts. http://www.who.int/en/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/hiv-aids. Accessed 18 July 2016
  5. 5.
    European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control – ECDC - & WHO Regional Office for Europe. Technical mission: HIV in Cyprus, 15–17 October 2014. ECDC, Stockholm (2015)Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Pineda-Pena, A.C., Theys, K., Demetriades, I., Abecasis, A.B., Kostrikis, L.G.: HIV-1 Infection in Cyprus, the Eastern Mediterranean European Frontier: A Densely Sampled Transmission Dynamics Analysis from 1986 to 2012, Scientific Reports, vol. 8, no. 1702, pp. 1–15 (2018).  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-19080-5
  7. 7.
    Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Estimates of new HIV infections in the United States. http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/topics/surveillance/resources/factsheets/incidence.htm. Accessed 28 Feb 2010

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Evren Hincal
    • 1
  • Tamer Sanlidag
    • 3
    • 4
    Email author
  • Farouk Tijjani Saad
    • 1
  • Kaya Suer
    • 5
  • Isa Abdullahi Baba
    • 1
  • Murat Sayan
    • 2
    • 4
  • Bilgen Kaymakamzade
    • 1
  • Nazife Sultanoglu
    • 6
  1. 1.Department of MathematicsNear East UniversityNicosiaCyprus
  2. 2.Faculty of Medicine, Clinical Laboratory, PCR UnitKocaeli UniversityKocaeliTurkey
  3. 3.Faculty of Medicine, Department of Medical MicrobiologyCelal Bayar UniversityManisaTurkey
  4. 4.Research Center of Experimental Health SciencesNear East UniversityNicosiaCyprus
  5. 5.Faculty of Medicine, Department of Infectious Diseases and Clinical MicrobiologyNear East UniversityNicosiaCyprus
  6. 6.Faculty of Medicine, Department of Medical Microbiology and Clinical MicrobiologyNear East UniversityNicosiaCyprus

Personalised recommendations