Advertisement

Adaptation Strategies to Reduce the Impact of Climate Change on Yield Loss in Northern Carpathians, Slovakia

  • Matej Žilinský
  • Jozef Takáč
  • Bernard Šiška
Chapter
Part of the Climate Change Management book series (CCM)

Abstract

In the Northern Carpathians region (Slovakia), a significant increase of mean annual temperatures was registered in the last 40 years, reflecting the significant impacts of climate change. In this paper, levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and soil water scarcity have been studied in order to forecast how their changes could affect agricultural production in the future. For this purpose, meteorological data were generated according to the general circulation model ARPEGE, while water balance measures in the Northern Carpathians (Slovakia) were evaluated by using agroecological model DAISY. Two emission scenarios were evaluated: RCP 8.5 (equiv. SRES A2) and RCP 6.0 (equiv. SRES B2). According to both, consequent increase of potential evapotranspiration and crop water requirements will gradually increase by 2071–2100. In addition, the availability of soil water will decline and the number of days with available water capacity below 50% AWC will increase during the growing season of field crops and evoke an increase of irrigation requirements. The results of this study predicted that the irrigation season will start earlier and will persist for a longer period in the future. Therefore, irrigation can be, in case of insufficient water sources, limiting factor for sustainable field crop production.

Keywords

Climate change Water use efficiency Field crops Adaptations Northern carpathians 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This paper was made with support of grant project VEGA 1/0767/17: Response of ecosystem services of grape growing country to climate change regional impact—change of functions to adaptation potential.

References

  1. Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration—guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56. Food and Agriculture Organization, RomeGoogle Scholar
  2. Bartholy J, Pongrácz R, Gelybó G, Kern A (2009) What climate can we expect in Central/Eastern Europe by 2071–2100? In: Bioclimatology and natural hazards. pp 3–14CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Cure JD, Acock B (1986) Crop responses to carbon dioxide doubling: a literature survey. Agric For Meteorol 38:127–145.  https://doi.org/10.1016/0168-1923(86)90054-7CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Hansen S (2000) DAISY a flexible soil—plant—atmosphere system model. Equation section 1. The Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University, Copenhagen, pp 1–47Google Scholar
  5. Hansen S, Jensen HE, Nielsen NE, Svendsen H (1990) DAISY—a soil plant system model. Danish simulation model for transformation and transport of energy and matter in the soilplant-atmosphere system. The National Agency for Environmental Protection, Copenhagen, pp 1–272Google Scholar
  6. IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 ppGoogle Scholar
  7. Knoppová K, Marton D (2018) Rainfall-runoff model for long-term prognosis under climate change. In: Rožnovský J, Litschmann T (eds) Hospodaření s vodou v krajině. Česká bioklimatologická společnost; Třeboň 2018, pp 1–13. ISBN 978-80-87361-83-2Google Scholar
  8. ME SR (2017) The seventh national communication of the Slovak Republic on climate change. Ministry of the Environment of the Slovak Republic, Bratislava, pp 1–228 http://www.minzp.sk/files/oblasti/politika-zmeny-klimy/7nc_svk.pdf. Accessed 28 June 2018
  9. Melo M (2004) Air temperature, atmospheric precipitation and specific humidity in Hurbanovo under the original emissions scenarios “IS92a” and new emission scenarios A2 SRES and B2 SRES. In: ŠIŠKA B et al (eds) Climate change—weather extremes—organism and ecosystems: international bioclimatological workshop 2004. Slovenská bioklimatologická spoločnosť; Viničky, 2004, pp 45–54Google Scholar
  10. Melo M, Lapin M, Damborska I (2009) Methods for the design of climate change scenario in Slovakia for the 21st century. Bull Geogr Phys Geogr Ser 1:77–90.  https://doi.org/10.2478/bgeo-2009-0005CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Nováková K (1996) Hydrophysical properties of Žitný ostrov soils. Scientific papers of the Research Institute of Irrigation, Bratislava, vol 22, pp 127–140Google Scholar
  12. Pohanková E, Hlavinka P, Orság M, Takáč J, Kersebaum K, Gobin A, Trnka M (2018) Estimating the water use efficiency of spring barley using crop models. J Agric Sci, 1–17.  https://doi.org/10.1017/s0021859618000060CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Poorter H (1993) Interspecific variation in the growth response of plants to an elevated ambient CO2 concentration. Vegetatio 104(105):77–97CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Riediger J, Breckling B, Nuske RS, Schroder W (2014) Will climate change increase irrigation requirements in agriculture of Central Europe? A simulation study for Northern Germany. Environ Sci Eur. Bridging Science and Regulation at the Regional and European Level 26:18.  https://doi.org/10.1186/s12302-014-0018-1
  15. Riediger J, Breckling B, Svoboda N, Schröder W (2016) Modelling regional variability of irrigation requirements due to climate change in Northern Germany. Sci Total Environ 54:329–340.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.09.043CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Ronco P, Zennaro F, Torresan S, Critto A, Santini M, Trabucco A, Zollo AL, Galluccio G, Marcomini A (2017) A risk assessment framework for irrigated agriculture under climate change. Adv Water Resour 110:562–578.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.08.003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Rötter PR, Palosuo T, Kersebaum KC, Angulo C, Bindi M, Ewert F, Ferrise R, Hlavinka P, Moriondo M, Nendel C, Olesen EJ, Patil HR, Ruget F, Takáč J, Trnka M (2012) Simulation of spring barley yield in different climatic zones of Northern and Central Europe: a comparison of nine crop models. Field Crops Res 133:23–36.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2012.03.016CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Šiška B, Špánik F (2008) Agroclimatic regionalization of Slovak territory in condition of changing climate. Meteorologický časopis 11:61–64Google Scholar
  19. Šiška B, Takáč J (2008) Dôsledky klimatickej zmeny na úrody poľných plodín na Podunajskej nížine. In: Lapin, M., Nejedlík, P. (eds) Národný klimatický program SR, VII, 2008, zv. 12, MŽP SR, SHMÚ, Bratislava, pp 113–122. ISBN 978-80-88907-63-3Google Scholar
  20. Takáč J (2001) Climate Change Impacts on Water Balance in Agricultural Landscape. NKP 10/ 2001. MoE SR, SHMI Bratislava, pp 16–26Google Scholar
  21. Takáč J (2013) Assessment of drought in agricultural regions of Slovakia using soil water dynamics simulation, Agriculture (Pol’nohospodárstvo) 59(2):74–87.  https://doi.org/10.2478/agri-2013-0007CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Takáč J, Košč V (1995) Unsaturated zone and agriculture. Final Report. PHARE Project No. PHARE/EC/WAT/1 Danubian Lowland Ground Water Model. Bratislava: MoE SR, Bratislava, 64 pGoogle Scholar
  23. Takáč J, Šiška B. (2009) Climate change impact on spring barley and winter wheat yields on Danubian Lowland. In: Střelcová K et al (eds) Bioclimatology and natural hazards. Springer, pp 283–288Google Scholar
  24. Takáč J, Šiška B (2011) Kalibrácia a validácia modelu DAISY pre podmienky Slovenska. VUPOP, Bratislava, pp 161–172. ISBN 978-80-89128-91-4Google Scholar
  25. van Vuuren DP, Carter TR (2013) Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with old. Clim Change 122:415–429.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0974-2CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Matej Žilinský
    • 1
  • Jozef Takáč
    • 2
  • Bernard Šiška
    • 1
  1. 1.Faculty of European Studies and Regional Development, Department of EcologyThe Slovak University of AgricultureNitraSlovak Republic
  2. 2.Soil Science and Conservation Research InstituteBratislavaSlovak Republic

Personalised recommendations