Advertisement

Relating Postal Activity to the Business Cycle by Linear Regression with Integral Equations

  • Katalin K. Clendenin
  • Soiliou D. Namoro
  • Edward S. Pearsall
Chapter
Part of the Topics in Regulatory Economics and Policy book series (TREP)

Abstract

We relate the cyclical components of USPS volumes and revenues per piece to a coincident indicator of the business cycle. The relationships are represented as linear integral equations and fit employing specialized algebraic methods. Our technique yields OLS estimates in the form of continuous coefficient functions spanning three years. In general, we find that USPS volumes and revenues respond to business conditions as expected but with diverse timings. However, our fits do not explain a high percentage of the variation in the cyclical component of any postal time series. Overall, U.S. postal activity does not appear to be strongly related to the business cycle.

References

  1. Bzhilyanskaya, L. Y., Cigno, M. M., & Pearsall, E. S. (2015). A branching AIDS model for estimating U.S. postal price elasticities. In M. A. Crew & T. J. Brennan (Eds.), Postal and delivery innovation in the digital economy. Cham, Switzerland: Springer.Google Scholar
  2. Hamilton, J. D. (2017). Why you should never use the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Manuscript available from the author at jhamilton@ucsd.eduGoogle Scholar
  3. Pearsall, E. S. (2011 and 2012). An econometric model of the demand for U.S. Postal Services with price elasticities and forecasts to GFY 2015. Documentation prepared for the PRC, January 11, 2011, estimates and forecasts revised February 2012.Google Scholar
  4. Pearsall, E. S. (2018). Algebraic methods for linear integral equations. Manuscript available from the author at espearsall@verizon.netGoogle Scholar
  5. U.S. Postal Service. (various years since 2009). Econometric demand equations for market dominant products. Filed with the PRC annually in January.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Katalin K. Clendenin
    • 1
  • Soiliou D. Namoro
    • 1
  • Edward S. Pearsall
    • 2
  1. 1.U.S. Postal Regulatory CommissionWashington, DCUSA
  2. 2.Independent ConsultantAlexandriaUSA

Personalised recommendations