Decline Curve Analysis

  • Sylvester Okotie
  • Bibobra Ikporo


The oil and gas business is a high risk and challenging venture and despite this risk and uncertainties, several exploration and production operations are still going on in the Niger Delta region and other parts of the world. It is important to note that reserves is what drive the oil and gas business and every operator wants to produce his/her field in a safe and economic way without a rapid decline in the production rate. Thus, they wish to remain in their plateau stage for a long period. Decline curve analysis is key to determine the most probable life of a well or field and also estimate the future performance. This is important in determining the value of oil and gas economics. This chapter presents the various methods of decline curve analysis, the applications, the causes of production decline, factors affecting the decline rate and also the methods of identifying the decline model of any field from historical data. Several fields’ example questions and solutions to capture all the decline methods are also presented to determine the model parameter, forecast of future production, abandonment time and rate.


Decline rate Exponential decline Harmonic decline Hyperbolic decline Production rate Abandonment time Production forecast And model parameter 

Supplementary material


  1. Agarwal RG, Gardner DC, Kleinsteiber SW, Fussell DD (1998) Analyzing well production data using combined type curve and decline curve analysis concepts. Paper presented at the SPE annual technical conference and exhibition, New Orleans, Sept 1998Google Scholar
  2. Arps JJ (1945) Analysis of decline curves. Trans AIME 160:228–231CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Doublet LE, Blasingame TA, Pande PK, McCollum TJ (1994) Decline curve analysis using type curves - analysis of oil well production data using material balance time: application to field cases. Paper presented at the SPE petroleum conference & exhibition of Mexico, Veracruz, Oct 1994Google Scholar
  4. Duong AN (1989) A new approach for decline-curve analysis. Paper presented at the SPE production operations symposium, Oklahoma City, 13–14 Mar 1989Google Scholar
  5. Ikoku C (1984) Natural gas reservoir engineering. WileyGoogle Scholar
  6. Mikael H (2009) Depletion and decline curve analysis in crude oil production. Licentiate Thesis, Department for Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala UniversityGoogle Scholar
  7. Robelius, F (2007) Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil: Giant Oil Fields and their Importance for Future Oil ProductionGoogle Scholar
  8. Rodriguez F, Cinco-Ley H (1993) A new model for production decline. Paper presented at the production operations symposium, Oklahoma City, 21–23 Mar 1993Google Scholar
  9. Tarek A (2010) Reservoir engineering handbook, 3rd edn. Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, AmsterdamGoogle Scholar
  10. Thompson R, Wright J (1985) Oil property evaluation, 2nd edn. Thompson-Wright Associates, GoldenGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Sylvester Okotie
    • 1
  • Bibobra Ikporo
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of Petroleum EngineeringFederal University of Petroleum ResourcesEffurunNigeria
  2. 2.Department of Chemical & Petroleum EngineeringNiger Delta UniversityYenagoaNigeria

Personalised recommendations