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Modern Approaches to Risk Situation Modeling in Creation of Complex Technical Systems

  • Anna E. Kolodenkova
  • Evgenia R. Muntyan
  • Vladimir V. Korobkin
Conference paper
Part of the Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing book series (AISC, volume 875)

Abstract

Creation of complex technical systems (CTS) is complicated iterative process, which is connected with considerable expenses of material, labor and financial resources together with many arising risk situations caused by constructive defects, industrial releases of unproven technologies, staff faults, inadequate skill level, etc. It can lead to sufficient backlog or fall of CTS creation project. Therefore modeling of the risk situations arising during creation of complex technical systems in the conditions of fuzzy input data is the relevant. Two modern approaches are proposed to detect and predict risk situations: fuzzy cognitive modeling and situation modeling. The convolution algorithm is presented for situation graph generalization. The construction and impulse modeling for fuzzy cognitive model of risk detection in nuclear industry is considered. The results of modeled scenarios of possible risk evolution and their analysis are shown. Proposed approaches allow to identify and analyze the facts impacting on risk situation, obtain possible scenarios of emergence, find the decision ways in modeled situations. It can be used a basis in the production of scientifically proven management actions.

Keywords

Risk situations Complex technical system Fuzzy cognitive modelling Situation modelling Fuzzy data 

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Anna E. Kolodenkova
    • 1
  • Evgenia R. Muntyan
    • 2
  • Vladimir V. Korobkin
    • 3
  1. 1.Samara State Technical UniversitySamaraRussia
  2. 2.Scientific Research Institute of the Multiprocessor Computing Systems of Southern Federal UniversityTaganrogRussia
  3. 3.Southern Federal UniversityTaganrogRussia

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