Enhanced Growth Rate and Reduced Water Demand of Crop Due to Climate Change in the Eastern Mediterranean Region
The specific objectives of this study were to: (a) test the reliability of a regional climate model (RCM) as a tool for climate change projection in the Eastern Mediterranean, (b) compare the observed yield variables of maize and wheat in the region with results of two crop models, (c) compare the models DSSAT and SWAP and (d) use DSSAT and SWAP to generate future productivity of wheat and maize under the A2 global warming scenario. Reference evapotranspiration was highly correlated with the models with average r2 = 0.98 and a unit slope. The two models accurately predicted observed dry mass production (DMP) and leaf area index (LAI) of wheat and maize. The correlations strengthen the legitimacy of DSSAT, SWAP and RCM to serve as predicting models for future climate change on a regional scale.
A simulation was carried out to describe the effects of climate change on crop growth and irrigation water requirements for a wheat-maize-wheat cropping sequence. Climate change scenarios were projected using data of three general circulation models (CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI) for the period of 1990–2100 and one RCM for the period of 2070–2079. Daily RCM data were consistent with actual meteorological data in the region and therefore were used for computations of present and future water balance and crop development. Predictions derived from the models about changes in irrigation and crop growth covered the period of 2070–2079 relative to a baseline period of 1994–2003. The effects of climate change on wheat and maize water requirements and yields were predicted using the detailed crop growth subroutine of the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) and SWAP (Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant) models. Precipitation was projected to decrease by about 163, 163 and 105 mm during the period of 1990–2100 under the A2 scenario of the CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI models respectively (an average of about 1.3 mm/year). The models projected a temperature rise of 4.3, 5.3 and 3.1 °C, by the year 2100. An increase in temperature may result in a higher evaporative demand of the atmosphere under combined doubling CO2 concentration and temperature rise by about 2 °C for the period of 2070–2079. The temperature rise accelerated crop development and shortened the growing period by a maximum of thirteen days for wheat and nine days for maize during the period 2070–2079. When yield and available water (rain + applied irrigation) were normalised by extension of the growing period with respect to the baselines years, DMP of maize increased by 1–3 ton ha−1 and that of wheat by 3–4 ton ha−1. Consequently, water use efficiency (WUE) increased for both crops. It was concluded, therefore, that the effect of increased temperature and doubling CO2 on agro-productivity may be positive. This positive effect can be explained if elevated temperature meets the optimal level of a crop response to temperature. Effects of elevated CO2 on crop tolerance to water stress may counteract the expected negative effects of rising temperature. Increased atmospheric CO2 levels have important physiological effects on crops such as the increase in photosynthetic rate, which is associated with higher yield and WUE, at least for some cereal crops in the Eastern Mediterranean.
KeywordsClimate change DSSAT CSM-CERES-Wheat CSM-CERES-Maise SWAP Atmospheric CO2 enrichment
The research was funded by the project Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Arid Areas (ICCAP), administered by the Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN) of Japan, and the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBITAK). We are grateful to Drs. M. Koç, M. Ünlü and C. Barutçular for providing crop and meteorological data. The study was partially supported by a grant from the Ministry of Science, Israel, the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF), and State and Federal funds allocated under the GLOWA project.
- Aydın M (1994) Hydraulic properties and water balance of a clay soil cropped with cotton. Irrigation Science 15:17–23.Google Scholar
- Boogaard HL, van Diepen CA, Rötter RP, Cabrera JMCA, van Laar HH (1998) User’s Guide for the WOFOST 7.1 Crop Growth Simulation Model and WOFOST Control Center 1.5. DLO-Winand Staring Centre, Wageningen, Technical Document 52.Google Scholar
- Evrendilek F, Wali MK (2004) Changing global climate: historical carbon and nitrogen budgets and projected responses of Ohio’s cropland ecosystems. Ecosystems 7(4):381–392Google Scholar
- IPCC (2001) The Scientific Basis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Izaurralde RC, Rosenberg NJ, Brown RA, Thomson AM (2003) Integrated assessment of Hadley Center (HadCM2) climate-change impacts on agricultural productivity and irrigation water supply in the conterminous United States: Part II. Regional agricultural production in 2030 and 2095. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 117:97–122.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Jones CA, Kiniry JR (1986) Ceres-Maize: A Simulation Model of Maize Growth and Development. College Station: Texas A & M Univ Press.Google Scholar
- Kimura F, Kitoh A (2007) Downscaling by Pseudo Global Warming Method. In the Final Report of ICCAP, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature and the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, 43–46.Google Scholar
- Kimura F, Kitoh A (2008) Downscaling by Pseudo Global Warning Method. Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305–8272, Japan.Google Scholar
- Nakicenovic N, Swart R (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Randall DA, Wood RA, Bony S, Colman R, Fichefet T, Fyfe J, Kattsov V, Pitman A, Shukla J, Srinivasan J, Stouffer RJ, Sumi A, Taylor KE (2007) Climate Models and Their Evaluation. In Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate Change: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge and NewYork: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Ritchie JT (1991) Wheat phasic development. p. 31–54. In Hanks J, Ritchie JT (eds) Modeling plant and soil systems. Agronomy Monograph 31, ASA, CSSSA, SSSA, Madison, WI.Google Scholar
- Roeckner E, Arpe K, Bengtsson L, Christoph M, Claussen M, Dümenil L, Esch M, Gioretta M, Schlese U, Schulzweida U (1996) The Atmospheric General Circulation Model ECHAM4: Model Description and Simulation of Present-Day Climate (Report No. 218). Hamburg: Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI).Google Scholar
- Rosenzweig C, Hillel D (1998) Climate Change and the Global Harvest: Potential Impacts of the Greenhouse Effect on Agriculture. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
- Rosenzweig C, Jones JW, Hatfield JL, Ruane AC, Boote KJ, Thorburn P, Antle JM, Nelson GC, Porter C, Janssen S, Asseng S, Basso B, Ewert F, Wallach D, Baigorria G, Winter JM (2013) The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 170:166–182.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Supit I, Hooijer AA, van Diepen CA (1994) System Description of the WOFOST 6.0 Crop Simulation Model Implemented in CGMS. In Supit I, Hooijer AA, van Diepen CA (eds) Volume 1: Theory and Algorithms. Catno: CL-NA-15956-EN-C. EUR 15956, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg.Google Scholar
- van Dam JC, Huygen J, Wesseling JG, Feddes RA, Kabat P, van Walsum PEV, Groendijk P, van Diepen CA (1997) Theory of SWAP version 2.0. Simulation of Water Flow, Solute Transport and Plant Growth in the Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant Environment. Technical Document 45, DLO Winand Staring Centre, Report 71, Dept. of Water Resources, Agricultural University: Wageningen.Google Scholar
- Yano T, Koriyama M, Haraguchi T, Aydın M (2005) Prediction of future change of water demand following global warming in the Çukurova region of Turkey. Proceedings of International Conference on Water, Land and Food Security in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions, (in CD-ROM), Mediterranean Agronomic Institute Valenzano (Bari), CIHEAM-MAIB, Italy, September 6–11.Google Scholar
- Zhao C, Liu B, Piao S, Wang X, Lobell DB, Huang Y, Huang M, Yao Y, Bassu S, Ciais P, Durand JP, Elliott J, Ewert F, Janssens IA, Li T, Lin E, Liu Q, Martre P, Müller C, Peng S, Peñuelas J, Ruane AC, Wallach D, Wang T, Wu D, Liu Z, Zhu Y, Zhu Z, and Asseng S (2017) Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates. PNAS 114(35):9326–9331. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1701762114CrossRefGoogle Scholar