Advertisement

An Integrated Approach to Climate Change Impact Assessment on Basin Hydrology and Agriculture

  • Tsugihiro WatanabeEmail author
  • Takanori Nagano
  • Rıza Kanber
  • Selim Kapur
Chapter
Part of the The Anthropocene: Politik—Economics—Society—Science book series (APESS, volume 18)

Abstract

Climate change, including changes in air temperature and precipitation, would affect the basin hydrological regime, and the change in the hydrological system might have some impacts on agriculture. To assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrology and agriculture of a basin, the relationship between climate and basin hydrology, and between hydrology and the agriculture of the basin need to be analysed systemically and integrally. In this study, an integrated approach to these analyses or diagnoses is developed for a better projection and evaluation of the climate change impacts as the foundation for better adaptation. It takes into account various complicated factors in these relationships, which are often uncertain and affect each other and must therefore be treated in a particular way.

Consequently, an integrated approach to the issues in question was developed and applied to a large-scale research project, which is the ICCAP Project of RIHN, Japan. The primary aim of the approach and the project was to integrate the concept and processes of the integration approach, which are outlined together with their application in the case study. The methodologies and major objectives of the integrated approach as the core task of the project were:
  1. (1)

    To diagnose the structure of land and water management in agricultural production systems in a basin, and especially to evaluate quantitatively the relationship between cropping systems, the hydrological cycle, and water balance in farmland and its environs.

     
  2. (2)

    To develop the methodology or model for integrated assessment of impacts of climate change and adaptations to it on agricultural production systems, mainly agricultural land and water management.

     
  3. (3)

    To develop and improve the Regional Climate Model (RCM) for more accurate projection with higher resolution of future changes in a regional climate, as the base for better assessment of climate change impacts.

     
  4. (4)

    To assess the vulnerability of agricultural production systems to natural change and to suggest possible and effective measures for enhancing the sustainability of agriculture through the integrated assessment of climate change impacts.

     

Keywords

Adaptation Agricultural production Climate change Impact assessment Regional climate Turkey 

Notes

Acknowledgements

Some parts of this paper are contributions from the ICCAP Project promoted by the Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN) and the Scientific and Technical Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK). This research was financially supported in part by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS), Grant-in-Aid No. 16380164, No. 19208022, No. 24248041 and No. 16H02763.

References

  1. Fujihara Y, Tanaka K, Watanabe T, Kojiri T (2007) Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Seyhan River Basin, Turkey. In the Final Report of ICCAP, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature and the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, 89–94.Google Scholar
  2. Fujinawa K, Tanaka K, Fujihara Y, Kojiri T (2007) The Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Seyhan River Basin, Turkey. In the Final Report of ICCAP, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature and the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, 73–79.Google Scholar
  3. Hoshikawa K, Nagano T, Kume T, Watanabe T (2007) Evaluation of Impact of Climate Changes on the Lower Seyhan Irrigation Project, Turkey. In the Final Report of ICCAP, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature and the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, 221–230.Google Scholar
  4. IPCC (2014) Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  5. Kimura F, Kitoh A (2007) Downscaling by Pseudo Global Warming Method. In the Final Report of ICCAP, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature and the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, 43–46.Google Scholar
  6. Kimura F, Kitoh A, Sumi A, Asanuma J, Yatagai A (2007) Downscaling of the global warming projections to Turkey. In the Final Report of ICCAP, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature and the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, 21–32.Google Scholar
  7. Nakagawa H, Kobata T, Yano T, Barutçular C, Koç M, Tanaka K, Nagano T, Fujihara Y, Hoshikawa K, Kume T, Watanabe T (2007) Predicting the Impact of Global Warming on Wheat Production in Adana. In the Final Report of ICCAP, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature and the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, 163–168.Google Scholar
  8. RIHN (2007) Final Report of ICCAP (The Research Project “Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production System in Arid Areas”), Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN) Japan; at: http://www.chikyu.ac.jp/iccap/finalreport.htm.
  9. Sato T, Kimura F, Kitoh A (2006) Projection of Global Warming onto Regional Precipitation over Mongolia Using a Regional Climate Model. Journal of Hydrology 333:144–154.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Umetsu C, Palanisami K, Coşkun Z, Donma S, Nagano T, Fujihara Y, Tanaka K (2007) Climate Change and Alternative Cropping Patterns in Lower Seyhan Irrigation Project: A Regional Simulation Analysis with MRI-GCM and CSSR-GCM. In the Final Report of ICCAP, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature and the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, 231–243.Google Scholar
  11. Watanabe T (2012) Integrated Approach to Climate Change Impact Assessment on Agricultural Production Systems. In: Anbumozhi V, Breiling M et al (eds) Climate change in Asia and the Pacific. Asian Development Bank Institute and SAGE, 138–155.Google Scholar
  12. Watanabe T, Nagano T (2014) Integrated Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Basin Hydrology and Water Use in Agriculture. Proceedings of the 22nd Congress of ICID, CD-ROM.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Tsugihiro Watanabe
    • 1
    Email author
  • Takanori Nagano
    • 2
  • Rıza Kanber
    • 3
  • Selim Kapur
    • 4
  1. 1.Graduate School of Global Environmental StudiesKyoto UniversityYoshida-HonmachiJapan
  2. 2.Graduate School of Agricultural ScienceKobe UniversityNadaku, KobeJapan
  3. 3.Department of Agricultural Structures and Irrigation EngineeringÇukurova UniversityAdanaTurkey
  4. 4.Department of Soil Science and Plant NutritionÇukurova UniversityAdanaTurkey

Personalised recommendations