Seismographs for Youthquakes—How Do We Know How the Public Voted in British General Elections?
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The question of whether or not Labour benefitted significantly from a “youthquake” in 2017 is perhaps the most controversial that has arisen in interpreting the outcome. This chapter explains the evidence on which such judgments are made, exploring its strengths and weaknesses: polls and surveys are always subject to a degree of uncertainty and possible error. In this case, some sources suggest there was a significant increase in the turnout of young people in 2017, others that there was not. Roger Mortimore documents each one, and concludes that the case is not proven either way; but he also argues that researchers could sometimes do more to ensure clarity when they publish, so as to help the lay observer trying to weigh up competing claims.
KeywordsYouthquake Opinion polls Survey methodology
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