The Polls in 2017

  • Will JenningsEmail author


Will Jennings examines the opinion polls in the 2017 election, showing how they tracked movements in voting intentions during the campaign, but also how most of them under-estimated the Labour vote on polling day, suggesting a comfortable Conservative victory when the election ended in producing no overall majority. He also notes YouGov’s successful innovation in using a multilevel regression post-stratification model to make detailed constituency projections of the result, which did predict a hung parliament. He further examines both the campaign trends and the performance of the polls into their historical perspective, finding that it is not true that the polls are getting “worse” at predicting election results, as well as discussing the impact of the pollsters’ turnout corrections on their accuracy in 2017.


Opinion polls Election prediction Voting behaviour 


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Copyright information

© The Author(s) 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.University of SouthamptonSouthamptonUK

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