Probabilistic Modelling and Optimization

  • Anindita Roy
  • Santanu Bandyopadhyay


As wind speed fluctuations manifest in energy fluctuations, the instantaneous uncertainty of wind speed availability is a bottleneck for successful implementation of wind-based power generation technology. Although being a proven technology, this crucial issue has affected the market growth of wind power technology in the isolated hybrid mode. In this chapter, a methodology which accounts for the stochastic nature of wind is developed using chance-constrained programming integrated into a time step simulation process is introduced. This enables the formulation of a deterministic equivalent energy balance through which the design space for a pre-specified reliability requirement can be generated. Thus, the design space is expressed as a function of the targeted reliability, thereby enabling a tailor-made design specific to a given reliability requirement. A major outcome of the treatment is in showing that the cut-in wind speed of the turbine plays a critical role in delivering desired power supply reliability. Through illustrative examples, it is also demonstrated that wind-battery systems cannot be designed to provide power supply reliability beyond a maximum value.


Wind-battery system Wind speed uncertainty Chance-constrained programming Sizing curve Design space Wind power probability distribution 


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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Anindita Roy
    • 1
  • Santanu Bandyopadhyay
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of Mechanical EngineeringPimpri Chinchwad College of EngineeringPuneIndia
  2. 2.Department of Energy Science & EngineeringIndian Institute of Technology BombayMumbaiIndia

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