Conflict and Complexity pp 165-178 | Cite as
Disrupting Terrorist Networks: A Dynamic Fitness Landscape Approach
Abstract
Over a period of approximately 5 years, Pankaj Ghemawat of Harvard Business School and Daniel Levinthal of the Wharton School have been working on a detailed simulation (producing approximately a million fitness landscape graphs) in order to determine optimal patterns of decision-making for corporations. In 2006, we adapted this study, combining it with our own work on terrorism to examine what would happen if we inverted Ghemawat and Levinthal’s findings and sought to provide disinformation or otherwise interfere with the communications and decision processes of terrorist organizations in order to optimize poor decision-making and inefficiencies in organizational coordination, command, and control.
Keywords
Local Search Global Optimum Adjacency Matrix Local Peak Policy ChoiceReferences
- 1.Jones, D. (2009). Understanding the form, function, and logic of clandestine cellular networks: The first step in effective counternetwork operations. Fort Leavenworth, KS: School of Advanced Military Studies, United States Army Command and General Staff College.Google Scholar
- 2.Butts, C. T. (2003). Network inference, error, and informant (in)accuracy: A Bayesian approach. Social Networks, 25(2), 103–30.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
- 3.Carley, K. (2002a). Modeling “covert networks”. Paper prepared for the National Academy of Science Workshop on Terrorism.Google Scholar
- 4.Carley, K., Dombroski, M., Tsvetovat, M., Reminga, J., & Kamneva, N. (2003). Destabilizing dynamic covert networks. In Proceedings of the 8th international command and control research and technology symposium. Washington: National Defense War College. http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/publications/resources_others/a2c2_carley_2003_destabilizing.pdf.
- 5.Krebs, V. (2001). Uncloaking terrorist networks. First Monday. http://www.orgnet.com/hijackers.html.
- 6.Sageman, M. (2004). Understanding terror networks. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press. https://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&aq=&oq=University+of+Penn&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4GGLS_enUS588US589&q=university+of+pennsylvania+press&gs_l=hp..3.0l5.0.0.0.7013.0.2lkLgd2zg24
- 7.Carley, K., Lee, J. -S., & Krackhardt, D. (2001). Destabilizing networks. Connections, 24(3), 31–34, INSNA.Google Scholar
- 8.Carley, K. (2002b). Inhibiting adaptation. In Proceedings of the 2002 command and control research and technology symposium. Monterey: Naval Postgraduate School.Google Scholar
- 9.Carley, K., Diesner, J., Reminga, J., & Tsvetovat, M. (2004). Toward an end-to-end approach for extracting, analyzing and visualizing network data. ISRI, Carnegie Mellon University.Google Scholar
- 10.Fellman, P. V., & Wright, R. (2003). Modeling terrorist networks: Complex systems at the mid-range. In Paper prepared for the Joint Complexity Conference. London School of Economics. http://www.psych.lse.ac.uk/complexity/Conference/FellmanWright.pdf.
- 11.Fellman, P. V., & Strathern, M. (2004). The symmetries and redundancies of terror: Patterns in the dark. In Proceedings of the annual meeting of the north american association for computation in the social and organizational sciences. Carnegie Mellon University. http://casos.isri.cmu.edu/events/conferences/2004/2004_proceedings/V.Fellman,Phill.doc.
- 12.Ghemawat, P., & Levinthal, D. (2000). Choice structures, business strategy and performance: A generalized NK-simulation approach. Reginald H. Jones Center, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. http://www.people.hbs.edu/pghemawat/pubs/ChoiceStructures.pdf.
- 13.Butts, C. T. (2001). The complexity of social networks: Theoretical and empirical findings. Social Networks, 23(1), 31–71.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
- 14.Clemens, J. P., & O’ Neill, L. (2004). Discovering an optimum covert network. Santa Fe Institute.Google Scholar
- 15.Hoffman, B. (1997). The modern terrorist mindset: Tactics, targets and technologies. Scotland: Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University.Google Scholar
- 16.Hoffman, B., & Carr, C. (1997). Terrorism: Who is fighting whom? World Policy Journal, 14(1), 1–2.Google Scholar
- 17.Codevilla, A. (2004a). Doing it the hard way. In Claremont review of books. Fall. http://www.claremont.org/writings/crb/fall2004/codevilla.html.
- 18.Tsvetovat, M., & Carley, K. (2003). Bouncing back: Recovery mechanisms of covert networks. In NAACSOS conference.Google Scholar
- 19.Kauffman, S. (1993). The origins of order. Oxford: Oxford University.Google Scholar
- 20.Kauffman, S. (1996). At home in the universe. Oxford: Oxford University.Google Scholar
- 21.Kauffman, S. (2000). Investigations. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
- 22.Lissack, M. (1996). Chaos and complexity: What does that have to do with knowledge management? In J. F. Schreinemakers (Ed.), Knowledge management: Organization, competence and methodology (Vol. 1, pp. 62–81). Wurzburg: Ergon.Google Scholar
- 23.McKelvey, B. (1999). Avoiding complexity catastrophe in coevolutionary pockets: Strategies for rugged landscapes. Organization Science, 10(3), 294–321.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- 24.Meyer, C. (1996). What’s under the hood: A Layman’s guide to the real science. In Cap Gemini, Ernst and Young, Conference on Embracing Complexity. San Francisco: Center for Business Innovation.Google Scholar
- 25.Butts, C. T. (2003). Predictability of large-scale spatially embedded networks. In R. Breiger, K. Carley, & P. Pattison (Eds.), Dynamic social network modeling and analysis: Workshop summary and papers (pp. 313–323). Washington: National Academies Press.Google Scholar
- 26.Butts, C. T. (2000). An axiomatic approach to network complexity. Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 24(4), 273–301.CrossRefMATHGoogle Scholar
- 27.Carley, K. M., & Butts, C. T. (1997). An algorithmic approach to the comparison of partially labeled graphs. In Proceedings of the 1997 international symposium on command and control research and technology, Washington.Google Scholar
- 28.Ghemawat, P., & Levinthal, D. E. (2006). Choice Interactions and Business Strategy. (Former title: “Choice Structures, Business Strategy and Performance: A Generalized NK-Simulation Approach”) The Wharton School, Working Paper, Revised February, 2006.http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/13121.pdf
- 29.Weinberger, E. (1991). Local properties of Kauffman’s NK Model: A tunably rugged energy landscape. Physical Review A, 44, 6399–6413.Google Scholar
- 30.Fellman, P. V., Sawyer, D., Wright, R. (2003). Modeling terrorist networks: Complex systems and first principles of counter-intelligence. In Proceedings of the NATO conference on central Asia: Enlargement, civil – military relations, and security. Kazach American University/North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).Google Scholar
- 31.Porter, M. (1996). “What is Strategy?” Harvard Business Review. Google Scholar
- 32.Codevilla, A. (2004b). Why U.S. intelligence is inadequate and how to fix it. Center for Security Policy, Occasional Papers Series. http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/occasionalpapers/Why-US-Intelligence-Is-Inadequate.pdf.
- 33.Gerecht, R. M. (2001). The counterterrorist myth. The Atlantic Monthly. Google Scholar
- 34.Gilligan, T. (2003). CIA life: 10,000 days with the agency. Intelligence E-Publishing Company.Google Scholar