Skew-Elliptical Time Series with Application to Flooding Risk
Abstract
In this article, skew-elliptical time series are defined in order to account for both skewness and kurtosis, with particular emphasis on the skew-normal and skew-t distributions. The bivariate skew-t distribution is then used to describe a 63 year time series of hourly sea levels measured at Charlottetown, Atlantic Canada. It is shown that the skew-t fits the data better than the normal distribution and it can be used to recover return periods of extreme levels based on a standard analysis of 63 annual maxima. Preliminary results are presented to show how the skew-t distribution may be used to estimate changes in flooding risk resulting from changes in sea level rise, storminess, and other climatic factors.
Key words
Extremes flooding risk kurtosis nonstationarity skewness storm surgePreview
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