Oil in the 1990s: Boom or Bust?

Abstract

Any long-term view of the oil market must be through the keyhole of current events. A long, extensive war in the Persian Gulf in 1990 and 1991 will lead to a different world than a negotiated settlement with Iraq will. In these circumstances, for the purpose of long-term analysis, it is most useful to identify the deepest underlying trends influencing oil, analyze these trends and make judgments about their course in the 1990s.