A CAST Case-Study: Assessing Risk in the Niger Delta



Prohibitively expensive, both in terms of human and financial cost, robust conflict assessment and early warning has traditionally been the purview of governments and large international organizations. But now, with rapid advances in information technology and computational methods, this work has become more accessible, allowing smaller nongovernmental organizations and civil society to participate. The Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST) is an approach that takes advantage of these developments. This chapter outlines the way in which CAST ensures the incorporation of sound theory, good data, and expert analysis, and illustrate its use for the assessment of risk in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria, specifically the states of Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and Abia in the year 2011, where there was significant levels of militancy, criminality, and political violence. This case study highlights the challenges and opportunities of early warning in an interconnected world.


Organize Crime Niger Delta Armed Group Conflict Analysis Niger Delta Region 
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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.The Fund for PeaceWashingtonUSA

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