Generation Systems Adequacy Evaluation
Abstract
As described in Chapter 1, the generating system can be defined as hierarchical level I (HLI) since it forms the first or basic step in the overall planning of a power system. In order to evaluate the adequacy of HLI, it is necessary to assess the ability of the generating capacity to satisfy the system load with acceptable risk. Techniques for making this assessment were initiated in the 1930’s and have been continuously developed ever since. A fairly exhaustive set of relevant papers are listed in the bibliographies of References 1–4, 32 and the important evaluation techniques are documented in Reference 5. It is not the purpose of this chapter to reiterate these techniques. Instead it is intended to address several related aspects which have either been developed more recently, or which have not been treated adequately in this form before or in which the stress has changed due to more recent thinking and application. These aspects include analysis of the IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS), energy-based reliability indices, novel forms of generation and Monte Carlo simulation techniques.
Keywords
Peak Load Reliability Assessment Load Model Capacity Model Wind Energy Conversion SystemReferences
- 1.Billinton, R., “Bibliography On Application Of Probability Methods In The Evaluation Of Generating Capacity Requirements,” IEEE Winter Power Meeting, 1966, paper 31 CP 66–62.Google Scholar
- 2.Billinton, R., “Bibliography On The Application Of Probability Methods In Power System Reliability Evaluation,” IEEE Trans, on Power Apparatus and Systems, PAS-91, 1972, pp. 649–660.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- 3.IEEE Committee Report, “Bibliography On The Application Of Probability Methods In Power System Reliability Evaluation, 1971–1977,” IEEE Trans, on Power Apparatus and Systems, PAS-97, 1978, pp. 2235–2242.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- 4.Allan, R.N., Billinton, R. and Lee, S.H., “Bibliography On The Application Of Probability Methods In Power System Reliability Evaluation, 1977–1982,” IEEE Trans on Power Apparatus and Systems, PAS-103, 1984, pp. 275–282.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- 5.Billinton, R. and Allan, R.N., “Reliability Evaluation Of Power Systems,” Longman, London, (England)/Plenum Press, New York, 1984.Google Scholar
- 6.IEEE Committee Report, “IEEE Reliability Test System,” IEEE Trans, on Power Apparatus and Systems, PAS-98, 1979, pp. 2047–2054.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- 7.Allan, R.N., Billinton, R. and Abdel-Gawad, N.M., “The IEEE Reliability Test System — Extensions To And Evaluation Of The Generating System,” IEEE Trans on Power Systems, PWRS-1, No. 4, 1986, pp. 1–7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- 8.Rau, N.S. and Schenk, K.F., “Application Of Fourier Methods For The Evaluation Of Capacity Outage Probabilities,” IEEE Winter Power Meeting, 1979, New York, paper A79 103–3.Google Scholar
- 9.IEEE Std 762, “Definitions For Use In Reporting Electric Generating Unit Reliability, Availability And Productivity”.Google Scholar
- 10.Billinton, R. and Allan, R.N., “Reliability Evaluation Of Engineering Systems, Concepts And Techniques,” Longman, London, (England)/Plenum Press, New York, 1983.MATHGoogle Scholar
- 11.Billinton, R. and El-Sheikhi, F.A., “Preventive Maintenance Scheduling Of Generating Units In Interconnected Systems,” International RAM Conference, 1983, pp. 364–370.Google Scholar
- 12.Allan, R.N. and Corredor-Avella, P., “Energy Based Indices In The Reliability Evaluation Of Generating Systems,” Inter Conf STAQUAREL ’84, Prague, March 1984, pp. 11–20.Google Scholar
- 13.Billinton, R. and Harrington, P.G., “Reliability Evaluation In Energy Limited Generating Capacity Studies,” IEEE Trans, on Power Apparatus and Systems, PAS-97, 1978, pp. 2076–2085.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- 14.British Wind Energy Association, “Wind Energy For The Eighties,” (Peter Peregrinus, 1982).Google Scholar
- 15.Milborrow, D.J., “Wind Power In The UK Electricity Supply Industry,” Electron. & Power, 1982, 28, pp. 665–669.Google Scholar
- 16.Taylor, D., “Renewables Prospects For Britain’s Utilities,” Electr. Rev., 1983, 212, pp. 24–26.Google Scholar
- 17.Desmukh, R.G. and Rama Kumar, R., “Reliability Analysis Of Combined Wind-Electric And Conventional Systems,” Sol. Energy, 1982, 28, pp. 345–352.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- 18.Cottrill, J.E.J., “Economic Assessment Of The Renewable Energy Sources,” IEE Proc. A, 1980, 127, (5), pp. 279–288.Google Scholar
- 19.Allan, R.N. and Corredor-Avella, P., “Reliability And Economic Assessment Of Generating Systems Containing Wind Energy Sources,” Proc. IEE, 132 Pt. C, 1985, pp. 8–13.Google Scholar
- 20.Billinton, R., Wacker, G. and Wojczynski, E., “Customer Damage Resulting From Electric Service Interruptions,” Canadian Electrical Association Report, April 1982.Google Scholar
- 21.Hammersley, J.M. and Handscomb, D.C., “Monte Carlo Methods,” John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, 1964.MATHGoogle Scholar
- 22.Rubinstein, R.Y., “Simulation And The Monte Carlo Method,” John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1981.MATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar
- 23.Noferi, P.L., Paris, L. and Salvaderi, L., “Monte Carlo Methods For Power System Evaluation In Transmission Of Generation Planning,” Proceedings 1975 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, Washington, 1975.Google Scholar
- 24.EPRI Report, “Modeling Of Unit Operating Considerations In Generating Capacity Reliability Evaluation. Volume 1: Mathematical Models, Computing Methods, And Results,” Report EL-2519, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, Ca., July, 1982.Google Scholar
- 25.Ghajar, R., “Utilization Of Monte Carlo Simulation In Generating Capacity Planning,” M.Sc. Thesis, College of Graduate Studies and Research, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, September, 1986.Google Scholar
- 26.Billinton, R. and Ghajar, R., “Utilization Of Monte Carlo Simulation In Generating Capacity Adequacy Evaluation,” CEA Transactions, Volume 26, 1987.Google Scholar
- 27.Jebril, Y.A.A., “Monte Carlo Simulation In Power System Reliability Evaluation,” M.Sc. Dissertation, UMIST, 1985.Google Scholar
- 28.Saboury, A., “Monte Carlo Methods In Reliability Evaluation Of Hydrothermal Generating Systems,” M.Sc. Dissertation, UMIST, 1986.Google Scholar
- 29.Ayoub, A.K., Guy, J.D. and Patton, A.D., “Evaluation and Comparison Of Some Methods For Calculating Generating System Reliability,” IEEE Trans, on Power Apparatus and Systems, PAS-89, 1970, pp. 537–544.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- 30.IEEE Task Group, “A Four-State Model For Estimation Of Outage Risk For Units In Peaking Service,” IEEE Trans, on Power Apparatus and Systems, PAS-91, 1972, pp. 618–627.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- 31.Cunha, S.H.F., Gomes, F.B.M., Oliviera, G.C. and Pereira, M.V.F., “Reliability Evaluation In Hydrothermal Generating Systems,” IEEE Summer Power Meeting, 1982, paper 82 SM430–7.Google Scholar
- 32.Allan, R.N., Billinton, R., Shahidehpour, S.M. and Singh, C, “Bibliography On The Application Of Probability Methods In Power System Reliability Evaluation, 1982–87,” IEEE Winter Power Meeting, New York, February 1988.Google Scholar