Reliability and Vulnerability Assessment as Decision Support during Purchase and Design of Complex, Technical Systems

Abstract

This paper describes the work carried out in connection with a reliability and vulnerability study of the Signalling System at “Gardermobanen” - a highspeed rail link between the centre of Oslo and the Main Airport in Oslo to be built and operated by NSB Gardermobanen - in order to ensure that the specified success criteria and quality goals are met. Focus in this paper is put on events and failures causing degraded operational modes or traffic restrictions such as reduced speed, single track operation, full stop in traffic, etc., and not on safety related aspects. Failure statistics from the Norwegian State Railways (NSB) show that the signalling system is one of the largest contributors to train delays (30–40%). The main results of a reliability and vulnerability analysis of the Signalling System at Gardermobanen carried out at an early stage of the development project to assist the purchaser (NSB Gardermobanen) as well as the supplier of the system (Siemens) are given together with an outline of the proposed reliability management programme for the further work. Our experience with respect to this type of work is presented together with a discussion of how similar reliability management programmes could be improved.