Advertisement

The Return of World Modeling

  • Ugo BardiEmail author
Chapter
Part of the SpringerBriefs in Energy book series (BRIEFSENERGY)

Abstract

The eclipse of “The Limits to Growth” lasted for a period that we may take as approximately corresponding to the 1990s. Apart from a brief flaring of the debate resulting from the publication of the second version of LTG (Meadows et al. 1992; Nordhaus 1992a), during this period the scientific debate on LTG was basically muted and very few studies appeared that would pursue the subject of world modeling in general. The LTG controversy had made scientists wary of entering an area where it was very hard – if not impossible – to get funding and where the results obtained were sure to generate opposition in the reviewing process of scientific journals. In the popular press, LTG was cited almost only in order to define it as a thoroughly flawed study; if not a purposeful attempt of deceiving the public. Even the environmental movement, in its various shades and versions, had focused on concepts such as “sustainable development” (United Nations 1987) that, under several respects, could be taken as opposed to the idea that there exist limits to growth.

Keywords

Resource Depletion World Modeling Base Case Scenario Positive Reappraisal Wrong Prediction 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

References

  1. Bardi, U. and Pagani M. 2007, “Peak Minerals”, The Oil Drum, http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3086 (accessed 31 August 2010)
  2. Bardi, U. 2008a, “Peak Oil and “The Limits to Growth”: two parallel stories”, The Oil Drum, Feb 16; http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3550 (Accessed July 20 2010).
  3. Bardi U., 2008b “How ‘The Limits to Growth’ was demonized.” The Oil Drum, March 9, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3551 (accessed July 20 2010)
  4. Bardi, U. 2009, “Fire or Ice? The role of peak fossil fuels in climate change scenarios” The Oil Drum, http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5084 , accessed 2 February 2011
  5. Bentley, R.W., 2000. “Were those past oil forecasts really so wrong?” In: The industry newsletter: To-morrow’s Oil. OneOffshore, part of the PetroData Group, Aberdeen, November.Google Scholar
  6. Bihouix Phlippe and De Guillebon, Benoit, 2010 “Quel futur pour les métaux?” EDP Sciences, Paris.Google Scholar
  7. Bradsher, K., 2010, “China Said to Widen Its Embargo of Minerals” New York Times, Oct 19, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/20/business/global/20rare.html, accessed Nov 01 2010.
  8. Broecker W.S., (1975) Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming? Science, New Series, Vol. 189, No. 4201 (Aug. 8, 1975), pp. 460–463Google Scholar
  9. Butler, Colin D. 2004, “Human Carrying Capacity and Human Health ” PLoS Med. 1(3): e55.Google Scholar
  10. Diederen A. M., 2010 “Managed Austerity and the Elements of Hope” Eburon, Delft, ISBN 9789059724259Google Scholar
  11. Eastin, John; Grundmann, Reiner; Prakash, Aseem (2010) “The two limits debates: ‘Limits to Growth’ and climate change”, Futures, In Press.Google Scholar
  12. Ehrlich, Paul R. and Ehrlich A. 1968. “The Population Bomb”. New York: Sierra Club–Ballantine Books.Google Scholar
  13. Ehrlich, Paul R. and Ehrlich A., 2009 “The Population Bomb Revisited” http://www.populationmedia.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/Population-Bomb-Revisited-Paul-Ehrlich-20096.pdf. Accessed Nov 6th 2010.
  14. Fiddaman, T. 2010a “System Dynamics World Library” http://www.metasd.com/models/ accessed 06 Nov 2010
  15. Fiddaman, T. 2010b “The model that ate Europe” http://blog.metasd.com/2010/05/the-model-that-ate-europe/ Accessed 07 Nov 2010
  16. Fukuyama, F. 1992, “The End of History and the Last Man”. Free Press, New York, 1992. ISBN 0-02-910975-2Google Scholar
  17. Garcia Dolores (2009) “A new world model including energy and climate change data”, The Oil Drum, http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5145, accessed Aug 15 2010.
  18. Gordon, R.B., Bertram, M., Graedel, T.E., 2006. “Metal stocks and sustainability”. Proc. Natl. Acad. USA 103(5), 1209–1214CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Hall, Charles A., and Day, John W., Jr. (2009) “Revisiting the Limits to Growth after peak oil”, American scientist, vol 97, p. 230.Google Scholar
  20. Hanjra, M. A., Qureshi, M.E., 2010 “Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change” Food Policy, Volume 35, Issue 5, Pages 365–377Google Scholar
  21. Hardin, Garrett, 1968. “The Tragedy of the Commons,” Science, vol. 162, pp 1243–1248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Hansen, James, 2007 “Climate catastrophe” The New Scientist, Volume 195, Issue 2614, Pages 30–34CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Hubbert, M.K. (1956). Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels. Presented before the Spring Meeting of the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio, TX, March 7–9, 1956Google Scholar
  24. IPCC, 2007: “Climate Change 2007: Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 996 pp.Google Scholar
  25. King M., Elliot, C., 1997, “A Martian View of the Hardinian Taboo”. British Medical Journal, vol 315 pp. 1441–1443Google Scholar
  26. Laudadio L. 1970 “On the dynamics of air pollution: a correct interpretation”, Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol 3, pp 563–571Google Scholar
  27. Pim Martens, Jeroen CJH Aerts, Bas Amelung, Laurens M Bouwer, Chiung Ting Chang, Maud Huynen, Ekko C. van Ierland, CSA (Kris) van Koppen, Darryn McEvoy, Arthur PJ Mol, Jan van Tatenhove, 2010, “Imagining the unimaginable: synthesis of essays on abrupt and extreme climate change”, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, In Press, Corrected ProofGoogle Scholar
  28. Meadows, Donella, H. 1999a “Chicken Little, Cassandra, and the Real Wolf” Whole Earth, Spring 1999, http://wholeearth.com/issue/2096/article/72/chicken.little.cassandra.and.the.real.wolf(accessed 20 August 2010)
  29. Meadows, Donella H; Meadows, Dennis L; and Randers, Jorgen (1992) Beyond the Limits, Chelsea Green, Post Mills, VTGoogle Scholar
  30. Meadows, D.H., Randers, J., Meadows, D.L, 2004, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update Chelsea Green, White River Junction, VTGoogle Scholar
  31. Mikesell, R.F., (1995) “The Limits to Growth, a reappraisal” Resources Policy, Volume 21, Issue 2, June 1995, Pages 127–131Google Scholar
  32. Nordhaus W. D., 1992a, “Lethal Models” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2, 1Google Scholar
  33. Nørgård, Jørgen Stig, Peet, John, Ragnarsdóttir Kristín Vala, (2010) “The History of The Limits to Growth” Solutions, Feb 26, http://www.thesolutionsjournal.com/node/569, Accessed Aug 10 2010
  34. Pearce, Fred, 2010 “Peoplequake: Mass Migration, Ageing Nations and the Coming Population Crash” Transworld Publishers Ltd., ISBN 13: 9781905811342 ISBN 10: 1905811349Google Scholar
  35. Sohn, Ira, 2005, “Long-term projections of non-fuel minerals: We were wrong, but why?” Resources Policy, Volume 30, Issue 4, Pages 259–284CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Tainter, J.A, 1988 The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  37. Technology Review, 2010, “Europe’s plan to simulate the entire planet” http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/25126/?ref=rss&a=f accessed 07 Nov 2010
  38. J.E. Tilton, 2006, “Depletion and the long-run availability of mineral commodities”. In: M.E. Doggett and J.R. Perry, Editors, Wealth Creation in Minerals Industry: Integrating Science, Business and Education: Special Publication 12, Society of Economic Geologists, Littleton, CO.Google Scholar
  39. Turner, G.M. 2008, “A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality” Global Environmental Change 18 (2008) 397–411CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. United Nations. 1987, “Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development.” General Assembly Resolution 42/187, 11 December 1987.Google Scholar
  41. Valero, A, Valero, A (2010) “A prediction of the energy loss of the world’s mineral reserves in the 21st century”, Energy, In Press,Google Scholar
  42. Verheijen, F.G.A., Jones, R.J.A., Rickson, R.J., Smith, C.J. 2009, “Tolerable versus actual soil erosion rates in Europe”, Earth Sciences Review, Volume 94, Issues 1–4, Pages 23–38Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Ugo Bardi 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Dipartimento di ChimicaUniversità di FirenzeFirenzeItaly

Personalised recommendations