Advertisement

Low-Carbon Transport in a Developed Megalopolis: The Case of London

  • David Banister
  • Robin Hickman
Chapter
Part of the Transportation Research, Economics and Policy book series (TRES)

Abstract

To really make an impact on tackling climate change over the longer term and even in the next 10–20 years, it is necessary to think more strategically wabout global, national and city-wide futures. One approach to thinking about trend-breaking futures is to use visioning and backcasting as a form of scenario building. This paper presents the results of a recently completed project on backcasting for transport in London, where a 60% reduction target in CO2 emission levels (on 1990 levels) has been set for the transport to 2025. This challenging target is articulated through the baseline case and two images of the future, one pushing the technology harder and the other emphasising the role of behavioural change. Over 150 individual policy measures have been grouped together into mutually supporting policy packages that are in turn assembled into clusters of policy packages to see whether the targets set can be reached. A simulation model has been developed to test the multiple pathways to achieving the targets set, given a range of potentially different priority perspectives. The difficulty of reaching the targets set can be demonstrated, even if all of the policy packages are used to a ‘high’ level of application. When international aviation is included and the expected growth in travel over the next 20 years, the impossibility of target achievement is clearly demonstrated.

Keywords

Public Transport Transport Sector Freight Transport Policy Package Policy Lever 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

References

  1. Ashiru O, Hickman R, Banister D (2009) TC-SIM modelling assumptions. Working Paper. Halcrow Group, LondonGoogle Scholar
  2. Banister D (2009) The big smoke: congestion charging and the environment. In: Richardson H, Bae C-H (eds) Road congestion pricing in Europe: implications for the United States. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, pp 176–197Google Scholar
  3. CCC (Committee on Climate Change) (2008) Building a low-carbon economy – the UK’s contribution to tackling climate change. CCC, London, DecemberGoogle Scholar
  4. CCC (Committee on Climate Change) (2009) Meeting carbon budgets – the need for a step change. CCC, London, JulyGoogle Scholar
  5. DECC (Department of Energy and Climate Change) (2009) UK low carbon transition. DECC, London, JulyGoogle Scholar
  6. DfT (Department for Transport) (2009) Low carbon transport: a greener future – a low carbon strategy for transport. DfT, London, Cm 7682, JulyGoogle Scholar
  7. DTI (Department of Trade and Industry) (2003) Energy White Paper. Our energy future – creating a low carbon economy. Department of Trade and Industry. Stationery Office, LondonGoogle Scholar
  8. DTI (Department of Trade and Industry) Foresight/Office of Science and Technology (2006) Intelligent infrastructure futures: the scenarios – towards 2055. Department of Innovation, Universities and Skills, LondonGoogle Scholar
  9. GLA (Greater London Authority) (2004) The London Plan. Greater London Authority, LondonGoogle Scholar
  10. GLA (Greater London Authority) (2007) Action Today to Protect Tomorrow: The Mayor’s Climate Change Action Plan. Greater London Authority, LondonGoogle Scholar
  11. Hickman R, Banister D (2007) Looking over the horizon: transport and reduced CO2 emissions in the UK by 2030. Transport Policy 14(5):377–387CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. NEAA (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) (2009) Getting into the Right Lane for 2050: a primer for debate, Report produced for the European Parliament by NEAA, Stockholm Resilience and Stockholm UniversityGoogle Scholar
  13. Saxena S (2009) Pathways to a sustainable future – Delhi 2030. Draft DPhil submission, School of Geography and the Environment, University of OxfordGoogle Scholar
  14. TfL (Transport for London) (2006a) Transport 2025: transport vision for a growing world city. Transport for London, LondonGoogle Scholar
  15. TfL (Transport for London) (2006b) The Mayor’s Transport Strategy. Greater London Authority, LondonGoogle Scholar
  16. TfL (Transport for London) (2009) The Mayor’s Transport Strategy. Greater London Authority, London.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Transport Studies Unit, School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK

Personalised recommendations