Skip to main content

Dynamic Simulation of Land-Use Change Trajectories with the Clue-S Model

  • Chapter
Modelling Land-Use Change

Part of the book series: The GeoJournal Library ((GEJL,volume 90))

Abstract

The CLUE(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model is one of the most widely applied models with approximately 30 applications in different regions of the globe focusing on a wide range of land-use change trajectories including agricultural intensification, deforestation, land abandonment and urbanisation. The model is a tool to better understand the processes that determine changes in the spatial pattern of land use and to explore possible future changes in land use at the regional scale. This chapter describes the functioning of the model and illustrates the potential of the model for scenario-based simulation of land-use change trajectories with two case studies, one which is a rural landscape in the eastern part of the Netherlands and one which is a strongly urbanized watershed surrounding Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 169.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Agarwal, C., Green, G.M., Grove, J.M., Evans, T.P. and Schweik, C.M. (2001) A Review and Assessment of Land Use Change Models. Dynamics of Space, Time, and Human Choice.Center for the Study of Institutions, Population, and Environmental Change, Indiana University and USDA Forest Service, Bloomington and South Burlington.

    Google Scholar 

  • Alcamo, J., Leemans, R. and Kreileman, E. (1998) Global Change Scenarios of the 21st Century, Results from the IMAGE 2.1 Model, Elsevier, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anselin, L. (2002) Under the hood: issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models, Agricultural Economics, 27: 247–267.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bousquet, F. and Le Page, C. (2004) Multi-agent simulations and ecosystem management: a review, Ecological Modelling, 176: 313–332.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Briassoulis, H. (2000) Analysis of land use change: theoretical and modelling approaches, in Loveridge, S. (ed) The Web Book of Regional Science, at http://www.rri.wvu.edu/ regscweb.htm. West Virginia University, Morgantown.

    Google Scholar 

  • Castella, J.-C., Boissau, S., Trung, T.N. and Quang, D.D. (2005) Agrarian transition and lowland-upland interactions in mountain areas in northern Vietnam: application of a multi-agent simulation model, Agricultural Systems, 86: 312–332.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Castella, J.-C., Pheng Kam, S., Dinh Quang, D., Verburg, P.H. and Thai Hoanh, C. (2007) Combining top-down and bottom-up modelling approaches of land use/cover change to support public policies: Application to sustainable management of natural resources in northern Vietnam, Land Use Policy, (in press). doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2005.09.009

    Google Scholar 

  • Clarke, K.C. and Gaydos, L.J. (1998) Loose-coupling a cellular automaton model and GIS: long-term urban growth prediction for San Francisco and Washington/Baltimore, International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 12: 699–714.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Costanza, R. (1989) Model goodness of fit: a multiple resolution procedure, Ecological Modelling, 47: 199–215.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Koning, G.H.J., Verburg, P.H., Veldkamp, A. and Fresco, L.O. (1999) Multi-scale modelling of land use change dynamics for Ecuador, Agricultural Systems, 61: 77–93.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dietzel, C., Herold, M., Hemphill, J.J. and Clarke, K.C. (2005) Spatio-temporal dynamics in California’s Central Valley: empirical links to urban theory, International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 19: 175–195.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dietzel, C. and Clarke, K. (2006) The effect of disaggregating land use categories in cellular automata during model calibration and forecasting, Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 30: 78–101.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hilferink, M. and Rietveld, P. (1999) LAND USE SCANNER: An integrated GIS based model for long term projections of land use in urban and rural areas, Journal of Geographical Systems, 1: 155–177.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huigen, M.G.A. (2004) First principles of the MameLuke multi-actor modelling framework for land use change, illustrated with a Philippine case study, Journal of Environmental Management, 72: 5–21.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klijn, J.A., Vullings, L.A.E., van de Berg, M., van Meijl, H., van Lammeren, R., van Rheenen, T., Eickhout, B., Veldkamp, A., Verburg, P.H. and Westhoek, H. (2005) EURURALIS 1.0: A scenario study on Europe’s Rural Areas to support policy discussion. Background document. Alterra report 1196, Wageningen University and Research Centre/Environmental Assessment Agency (RIVM).

    Google Scholar 

  • Lambin, E.F. (1997) Modelling and monitoring land-cover change processes in tropical regions, Progress in Physical Geography, 21: 375–393.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lambin, E.F., Rounsevell, M.D.A. and Geist, H.J. (2000) Are agricultural land-use models able to predict changes in land-use intensity? Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 82: 321–331.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moody, A. and Woodcock, C.E. (1994) Scale-dependent errors in the estimation of land-cover proportions: implications for global land-cover data sets, Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, 60: 585–594.

    Google Scholar 

  • Munroe, D.K., Southworth, J. and Tucker, C.M. (2002) The dynamics of land-cover change in western Honduras: exploring spatial and temporal complexity, Agricultural Economics, 27: 355–369.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Overmars, K.P., Verburg, P.H. and Veldkamp, A. (2007) Comparison of a deductive and an inductive approach to specify land suitability in a spatially explicit land use model, Land Use Policy, (in press). doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2005.09.008

    Google Scholar 

  • Parker, D.C., Manson, S.M., Janssen, M.A., Hoffman, M. and Deadman, P. (2003) Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change: a review, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 93: 314–337.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pontius, R.G., Cornell, J.D. and Hall, C.A.S. (2001) Modelling the spatial pattern of land-use change with GEOMOD2: application and validation for Costa Rica, Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 85: 191–203.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pontius, R.G., Huffaker, D. and Denman, K. (2004) Useful techniques of validation for spatially explicit land-change models, Ecological Modelling, 179: 445–461.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pontius, R.G., Boersma, W., Castella, J.-C., Clarke, K., de Nijs, T., Dietzel, C., Duan, Z., Fotsing, E., Goldstein, N., Kok, K., Koomen, E., Lippitt, C.D., McConnell, W., Pijanowski, B., Pithadia, S., Sood, A.M., Sweeney, S., Trung, T.N. and Verburg, P.H. (2007) Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change, Annals of Regional Science, (in press).

    Google Scholar 

  • Pontius, R.G. and Cheuk, M.L. (2006) A generalized cross-tabulation matrix to compare soft-classified maps at multiple resolutions, International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 20: 1–30.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schmit, C., Rounsevell, M.D.A. and La Jeunesse, I., (2006). The limitations of spatial land use data in environmental analysis, Environmental Science and Policy, 9(2): 174–188.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Veldkamp, A. and Fresco, L.O. (1996) CLUE-CR: an integrated multi-scale model to simulate land use change scenarios in Costa Rica, Ecological Modelling, 91: 231–248.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Veldkamp, A. and Fresco, L.O. (1997) Exploring land use scenarios, an alternative approach based on actual land use, Agricultural Systems, 55: 1–17.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verburg, P.H., Veldkamp, A. and Fresco, L.O. (1999) Simulation of changes in the spatial pattern of land use in China, Applied Geography, 19: 211–233.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verburg, P.H., Soepboer, W., Limpiada, R., Espaldon, M.V.O., Sharifa, M. and Veldkamp, A. (2002) Land use change modelling at the regional scale: the CLUE-S model, Environmental Management, 30: 391–405.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verburg, P.H. and Veldkamp, A. (2004a) Projecting land use transitions at forest fringes in the Philippines at two spatial scales, Landscape Ecology, 19: 77–98.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verburg, P.H., Schot, P., Dijst, M. and Veldkamp, A. (2004b) Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities, Geojournal, 61: 309–324.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verburg, P.H., de Nijs, T.C.M., Ritsema van Eck, J., Visser, H. and de Jong, K. (2004c) A method to analyse neighbourhood characteristics of land use patterns, Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 28: 667–690.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verburg, P.H., Ritsema van Eck, J., de Nijs, T., Dijst, M.J. and Schot, P. (2004d) Determinants of land use change patterns in the Netherlands, Environment and Planning B, 31: 125–150.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verburg, P.H., Schulp, C.J.E., Witte, N. and Veldkamp, A. (2006) Downscaling of land use change scenarios to assess the dynamics of European landscapes, Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 114(1): 39–56.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wassenaar, T., Gerber, P., Verburg., P.H., Ibrahim, M. and Steinfeld, H. (2007) Projecting land-use changes in the neotropics: the geography of pasture expansion into forest, Global Environmental Change, (in press). doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.007

    Google Scholar 

  • White, R., Engelen, G. and Uijee, I. (1997) The use of constrained cellular automata for high-resolution modelling of urban land-use dynamics, Environment and Planning B, 24: 323–343.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2007 Springer

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Verburg, P., Overmars, K. (2007). Dynamic Simulation of Land-Use Change Trajectories with the Clue-S Model. In: Koomen, E., Stillwell, J., Bakema, A., Scholten, H.J. (eds) Modelling Land-Use Change. The GeoJournal Library, vol 90. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-5648-2_18

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics