2014: Us Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound

  • Lawrence H. Summers


I would like to thank Michael Peterson very much for his generous words of introduction and for his thoughtful observations about the long-run economic challenges that our country faces. You do not, however, get to the long run except through the short run, and what happens in the short run has a profound impact on the long run. To reverse Keynes a bit, if you die in the short run, there is no long run. So my preoccupation this morning will be with a set of temporary but, I believe, ultimately long-term concerns.


Interest Rate Monetary Policy Federal Reserve Real Interest Rate Real Rate 
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  1. Laubach, Thomas and John C. Williams. 2003. “Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4): 1063–1070.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

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© Lawrence H. Summers 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Lawrence H. Summers
    • 1
  1. 1.Harvard UniversityUSA

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