Determining the Number of Simulation Runs: Treating Simulations as Theories by Not Sampling Their Behavior

  • Frank E. Ritter
  • Michael J. Schoelles
  • Karen S. Quigley
  • Laura Cousino Klein
Chapter

Abstract

How many times should a simulation be run to generate valid predictions? With a deterministic simulation, the answer simply is just once. With a stochastic simulation, the answer is more complex. Different researchers have proposed and used different heuristics. A review of the models presented at a conference on cognitive modeling illustrates the range of solutions and problems in this area. We present the argument that because the simulation is a theory, not data, it should not so much be sampled but run enough times to provide stable predictions of performance and the variance of performance. This applies to both pure simulations as well as human-in-the-loop simulations. We demonstrate the importance of running the simulation until it has stable performance as defined by the effect size of interest. When runs are expensive we suggest a minimum number of runs based on power calculations; when runs are inexpensive we suggest a maximum necessary number of runs. We also suggest how to adjust the number of runs for different effect sizes of interest.

Keywords

Cognitive Appraisal Cognitive Architecture Threat Appraisal Stable Prediction Serial Subtraction 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Notes

Acknowledgments

Earlier versions of this work have been presented at the US Air Force Workshop on ACT-R models of human-system interaction, and ONR workshops on cognitive architectures. Participants there provided useful comments. This project was supported by ONR award N000140310248 and DTRA HDTRA1-09-1-0054. Axel Cleeremans, Andrew Reifers, and Lael Schooler provided comments to improve this paper. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the position or the policies of the US Government, and no official endorsement should be inferred.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Frank E. Ritter
    • 1
  • Michael J. Schoelles
    • 5
  • Karen S. Quigley
    • 2
    • 3
  • Laura Cousino Klein
    • 4
  1. 1.College of Information Sciences and TechnologyThe Pennsylvania State UniversityPAUSA
  2. 2.Department of PsychologyNortheastern UniversityBostonUSA
  3. 3.Department of Veterans AffairsEdith Nourse Rogers (Bedford) Memorial VA HospitalBedfordUSA
  4. 4.Department of Biobehavioral HealthThe Pennsylvania State UniversityPAUSA
  5. 5.Department of Cognitive ScienceRensselaer Polytechnic InstituteTroyUSA

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