The Stakes of Capture–Recapture Models with State Uncertainty

Part of the Environmental and Ecological Statistics book series (ENES, volume 3)

Abstract

The development of the use of CR multistate models is a major feature of the last 5 years. However, concerns have rightfully appeared about uncertainty in state assignment. I examine situations where uncertainties seem to be intrinsic such as with breeding status. But I also argue that uncertainty is not just a liability, it can be an opportunity – for instance, to exploit more fully the data at hand and limit disturbance. Then I examine the methodological answers that have been proposed. They mainly concern the models conditional on first release and are of a more or less general applicability. I advocate a general approach that can be adapted to each particular case and be used to expand extant specialized approaches. I will also consider how uncertainty could be incorporated into non-conditional models such as models of stopover duration. I conclude that, with the advent of genetic sampling, the new challenges for CR models will be uncertainty in individual identity and dependence among individuals.

Keywords

Heterogeneity of capture Hidden Markov model Label switching Mixture models Multievent Sex uncertainty Stopover duration 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.CEFE34293 Montpellier cedex 5France

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