System Dynamics Based Prediction of New Product Diffusion: An Evaluation

  • Sabine Schmidt
  • Daniel Baier
Part of the Operations Research Proceedings book series (ORP, volume 2005)

Abstract

System Dynamics (SD) is a methodology that can be used for analysing and understanding complex feedback systems. Influencing factors, time delays as well as dynamic relations between factors and effects can be assumed and used for simulations and the development of strategies. Whereas the aim of SD models is the better understanding of the relationship between underlying structure and behaviour of the feedback system, it can also — at least in principal — be used for forecasting. This paper analyses this application field by using real and generated data on new product diffusions in a calibration — validation — setting.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  • Sabine Schmidt
    • 1
  • Daniel Baier
    • 2
  1. 1.Chair of Planning and Innovation ManagementBrandenburg University of TechnologyCottbusGermany
  2. 2.Chair of Marketing and Innovation ManagementBrandenburg University of TechnologyCottbusGermany

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