Operations Research Proceedings 2005 pp 625-630
System Dynamics Based Prediction of New Product Diffusion: An Evaluation
System Dynamics (SD) is a methodology that can be used for analysing and understanding complex feedback systems. Influencing factors, time delays as well as dynamic relations between factors and effects can be assumed and used for simulations and the development of strategies. Whereas the aim of SD models is the better understanding of the relationship between underlying structure and behaviour of the feedback system, it can also — at least in principal — be used for forecasting. This paper analyses this application field by using real and generated data on new product diffusions in a calibration — validation — setting.
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