Extreme Events in Nature and Society pp 95-119

Part of the The Frontiers Collection book series (FRONTCOLL)

Endogenous versus Exogenous Origins of Crises

  • Didier Sornette


Are large biological extinctions such as the Cretaceous/Tertiary KT boundary due to a meteorite, extreme volcanic activity or self-organized critical extinction cascades? Are commercial successes due to a progressive reputation cascade or the result of a well orchestrated advertisement? Determining the chain of causality for Xevents in complex systems requires disentangling interwoven exogenous and endogenous contributions with either no clear signature or too many signatures. Here, I review several efforts carried out with collaborators which suggest a general strategy for understanding the organizations of several complex systems under the dual effect of endogenous and exogenous fluctuations. The studied examples are: internet download shocks, book sale shocks, social shocks, financial volatility shocks, and financial crashes. Simple models are offered to quantitatively relate the endogenous organization to the exogenous response of the system. Suggestions for applications of these ideas to many other systems are offered.


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Copyright information

© Center for Frontier Sciences 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  • Didier Sornette
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
  1. 1.Institute of Geophysics and Planetary PhysicsLos AngelesUSA
  2. 2.Department of Earth and Space SciencesUniversity of CaliforniaLos AngelesUSA
  3. 3.Laboratoire de Physique de la Matière CondenséeUniversité de Nice — Sophia AntipolisNice Cedex 2France

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