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A Review of Demographic Forecasting Models for Mortality

  • Ewa Tabeau
Chapter
Part of the European Studies of Population book series (ESPO, volume 9)

Abstract

The goal of Chapter 1 is to describe and comment on the methods and approaches that have been in use or have emerged in recent years. Section 1.1 introduces the most common classifications of forecasting models for mortality. Section 1.2 is devoted to a brief historical review of parameterisation functions. In this context, attention is paid to prediction based on parameterised age schedules, in particular by using time series models. Section 1.3 focuses on the (statistical association) models of Lee and Carter and Section 1.4 characterises the (log-linear) age-period-cohort models. In Section 1.5 the reader can find a review of the methods used in international statistical practice and in Section 1.6 the importance of uncertainty in forecasting is addressed. Section 1.7 outlines the prospects for modelling and forecasting mortality as seen from the perspective of this chapter.

Keywords

Life Expectancy Forecast Error American Statistical Association Multivariate Time Series Model Life Table 
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