Abstract
The change (“conditioning”) from prior P to posterior Q = P( |E) is appropriate only if it changes no probabilities conditionally on E. Under similar conditions a generalization of conditioning (“probability kinematics”) is appropriate when Q(E) < 1. That generalization is pretty nearly equivalent to ordinary conditioning on the extraordinary proposition that Q(E) has a certain value. Whether or not generalized conditioning is sensitive to the order in which successive changes are made depends on how the changes are set, e.g., by probabilities, or by ratios of probabilities. In a finitistic framework simple and generalized (“partial”) exchangeability are characterized and related to probability kinematics.
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© 1988 Kluwer Academic Publishers
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Jeffrey, R. (1988). Conditioning, Kinematics, and Exchangeability. In: Skyrms, B., Harper, W.L. (eds) Causation, Chance and Credence. The University of Western Ontario Series in Philosophy of Science, vol 41. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-2863-3_12
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-2863-3_12
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