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Structural and Microsimulation Models

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A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections

Part of the book series: The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis ((PSDE,volume 37))

Abstract

Structural models use statistical techniques that base population changes on changes in one or more explanatory variables. They are invaluable for many planning and policy-making purposes because they explicitly account for the influence of factors such as employment, wage rates, land use, housing, and the transportation system. We discuss two types of structural models in this chapter. Economic-demographic models typically focus on larger geographic areas such as counties, metropolitan areas, and states whereas urban systems models typically focus on smaller areas such as census tracts, block groups, and individual blocks. We also discuss microsimulation models, which focus on projections of individual entities (e.g., persons, households, or vehicles). We close with a discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of structural and microsimulation models.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA

    Stanley K. Smith

  2. Economics Department, University of California-San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA

    Jeff Tayman

  3. Department of Sociology, University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA, USA

    David A. Swanson

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  1. Stanley K. Smith
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  2. Jeff Tayman
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  3. David A. Swanson
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Smith, S.K., Tayman, J., Swanson, D.A. (2013). Structural and Microsimulation Models. In: A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 37. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7551-0_9

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