Abstract
Although individual instrumental records from various places in North America and Europe are examined to determine trends, including the identification of the warmest and coldest years in the records, the main focus of this chapter is on proxy records. Proxy temperature records are constructed from tree ring, ice core and other paleoclimatic data using statistical methods that link the proxies to observed (instrumental) temperature data. The statistical methods are briefly discussed. Climate scientists use the proxy temperature reconstructions to show that global average temperatures remained constant for upwards of two millennia before rising dramatically beginning in the twentieth century – the temperature reconstructions effectively eliminate the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age or relegate them to local phenomena. This reconstruction became known as the hockey stick, with the long-run period of constant temperatures constituting the shaft and the recent dramatic upturn the blade of the stick. Along with a similar trend in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the hockey stick is the key empirical evidence of global warming used by the IPCC. The criticism and defense of the hockey stick graph are discussed in detail, as are some of the other issues regarding the use of instrumental and proxy temperature reconstructions.
The burden of proof for destructive climate change firmly rests with those whose remedy requires an overturning of economic and political assumptions without precedent. We need to apply the best thinking of which we are capable. We haven’t done that so far. In the postmodern dispensation that now beguiles us, this will be an uphill trudge. It is always more fun to damn the facts and embrace wishes. The great game of climate-change baseball is in the late innings, but Reality bats last.
William Anderson, Harvard University, in First Things, February 2010
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Notes
- 1.
The following erratum was printed in Science on January 21, 2005: The final sentence of the fifth paragraph should read “That hypothesis was tested by analyzing 928 abstracts, published in refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, and listed in the ISI database with the keywords ‘global climate change’.”
- 2.
Benny J. Peiser, Letter to Science, January 4, 2005, submission ID: 56001. Science Letters Editor Etta Kavanagh eventually decided against publishing even a shortened version of the letter that she requested because “the basic points of your letter have already been widely dispersed over the internet” (e-mail from Etta Kavanagh to Benny Peiser, April 13, 2005). Peiser replied: “As far as I am aware, neither the details nor the results of my analysis have been cited anywhere. In any case, don’t you feel that Science has an obligation to your readers to correct manifest errors? After all, these errors continue to be employed by activists, journalists and science organizations. … Are you not aware that most observers know only too well that there is absolutely ‘no’ consensus within the scientific community about global warming science?” The correspondence between Peisner and the editors of Science is at www.staff.livjm.ac.uk/spsbpeis/Scienceletter.htm. (viewed April 11, 2011).
- 3.
While supporting the view that current temperatures are unprecedented, the CRU now acknowledges that perhaps temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period were warmer than currently (see Vinther et al. 2010). This is discussed further below.
- 4.
Emails from East Anglia University can be searched at http://www.eastangliaemails.com/ (viewed April 15, 2010). Overviews of many of the key (controversial) emails are available in a United States Senate Report (U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works 2010) and from Australian science writer Joanne Nova (2010). A recent (2010) book by Steven Mosher and Thomas W. Fuller, Climategate The CRUtape Letters (ISBN 1450512437; self published but available from Amazon.com), provides a history of the climategate emails that ties them to the scientific issues as they evolved.
- 5.
The Economist is quite apologetic for the attitude of climate scientists, arguing that the scientific failings are typical practice. However, it fails to point out that more technical analyses of computer codes raise concerns about the crude methods used to link proxy temperature data from tree rings to observed (albeit also ‘adjusted’) data originating from weather stations; two of many interpretations are provided by Marc Sheppard (sinister) and John Graham-Cumming (apologetic) at (both viewed December 3, 2009): www.americanthinker.com/2009/11/crus_source_code_climategate_r.html and http://www.jgc.org/blog/2009/11/very-artificial-correction-flap-looks.html, respectively The Economist’s bias was revealed in a lengthy article in the March 20, 2010 issue entitled “Spin, science and climate change” (pp. 83–86). Disconcertingly, the spin referred to detractors of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming, who the article suggests do not conduct peer reviewed research but only operate through blogs, in contrast to those real scientists who do believe in human-driven global warming. For another perspective, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5m6KzDnv7k (viewed April 9, 2011).
- 6.
See http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8511670.stm (viewed February 16, 2010).
- 7.
The current author appears to have been included among those unconvinced by the evidence. However, his reason for signing one of the documents used by Anderegg et al. (2010) related to Canada’s climate policies and not to the climate science (which he only began to investigate seriously in preparing the current book).
- 8.
Since a body always gives off infrared radiation to its surroundings, buildings, pavement and so on contribute to higher temperatures during the daytime as well as nighttime (see Chap. 5). Thus, the heat island effect is not simply a nighttime phenomenon.
- 9.
Data for stations are available at http://cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/ushcn/access.html (viewed April 26, 2010).
- 10.
In all three cases, the data are taken from http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D.txt, as viewed August 20, 2007, May 27, 2009, and April 26, 2010. The middle observation is reported by Brian Sussman (2010, p. 58), with the others by the current author. Sussman does not report the temperature anomalies and there is no way to retrieve them from the internet location at which they are found.
- 11.
See IPPC Working Group I(IPCC WGI 2007, pp. 466–474). The Working Group I (WGI) report is entitled ‘Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis.’
- 12.
See (IPCC WGI 2007, p. 479).
- 13.
For example, Tom Pedersen, Director of the Pacific Institute for Climate Studies (PICS) at the University of Victoria in British Columbia, claims that the low temperatures of the LIA were local occurrences as opposed to a wider, global trend (personal communication, April 25, 2010).
- 14.
Ladurie (1971) points to the advance and retreat of glaciers in North America and Greenland (pp. 99–107), records of flowering dates for the cherry blossom and other plants in Japan (p. 270), lake freezing dates in Japan (p. 272), evidence from giant cacti in Arizona (p. 40), and many examples from other regions, as support for the existence of the LIA outside Europe.
- 15.
Fagan’s study is particularly instructive when it is contrasted with his Medieval Warm Period (Fagan 2008). The only clear conclusion is that warm weather is greatly preferred to cold, which is why the MWP is sometimes referred to as an ‘optimum.’ Certainly there were droughts and plagues of locusts, but evidence from various sources indicates that droughts, crop failure and yields were much worse during cold periods than warm ones (Fagan 2000, 2008; Idso and Singer 2009; Ladurie 1971; Plimer 2009, pp. 63–86).
- 16.
Steve McIntyre discusses the origins of this figure (Fig. 7c in the IPCC report) in a May 9, 2008 blog at http://www.climateaudit.org
- 17.
- 18.
Climategate emails are at http://www.eastangliaemails.com/index.php (viewed June 8, 2010). A searchable database for the 2009 and 2011 climategate emails is available at (viewed December 7, 2011): http://foia2011.org/
- 19.
The methods discussed here are described in more detail by Montford (2010, pp. 41–48) and Auffhammer et al. (2010).
- 20.
NOAA’s World Data Center for Paleoclimatology also makes available hundreds of different ice-core, lake-bed sediment, coral reef and other paleoclimatic records at their website http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html, although it is sometimes difficult to determine what each record actually contains/means. Much of the data is in ‘raw’ form so it is still necessary to develop temperature or other proxies from it. The data are available at (viewed May 25, 2011): ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/ljungqvist2009/ljungqvist2009recons.txt.
- 21.
See http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html (viewed April 17, 2010).
- 22.
This accords with remarks by Phil Jones in a February 13, 2010 BBC interview, in which he indicated that the MWP was warmer than anything experienced recently.
- 23.
This is similar to the temperature anomalies that we encountered in Chap. 2. There, for example, the CRUT3 temperature series constitute an anomaly about the 1961–1990 global average temperature. Here the average temperature of a proxy series is simply the average over all observations for that series.
- 24.
- 25.
Data available from http:/www.climateaudit.info/data/jser.txt (viewed April 20, 2011).
- 26.
See http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/borehole/core.html (viewed April 26, 2010).
- 27.
The graph of temperatures is nearly identical to NOAA’s temperature graph based on borehole data (see previous note).
- 28.
See http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/05/united-nations-pulls-hockey-stick-from-climate-report/ (viewed October 12, 2009). The book’s official website http://www.unep.org/compendium2009/) was “under revision” as of October 12, 2009, but available again in February 2010. Interestingly, the graph that replaced the original figure (Fig. 3.7 in the text) begins in 1880 and goes to 2005, rather than the period 1000–2000. However, for the period after 1998, it continues to show temperatures increasing contrary to official data, as shown in Fig. 2.4 of the previous chapter.
- 29.
It turns out, however, that the IPCC itself relied on non-peer reviewed material for a number of its assertions (see Chap. 5).
- 30.
Many papers, correspondence and other documents relating to the hockey stick debate between MM and MBH can be found at http://www.climateaudit.org/?page_id=354 (viewed April 12, 2011). Also, the climategate controversy may have resulted in greater openness in the sharing of data and computer code.
- 31.
See http://climateaudit.org/2009/12/10/ipcc-and-the-trick/ (viewed April 24, 2010) and http://climateaudit.org/2011/03/17/hide-the-decline-sciencemag/ (viewed April 12, 2011).
- 32.
The graph was digitized by Stephen McIntyre in 2010 at the internet site indicated in the preceding note. Since then, data are more readily accessible from the internet, but one must still search to find the appropriate data and instructions regarding what the data mean. The data provided below are from Briffa et al. (1998), Jones et al. (1998) and Briffa (2000), and can be accessed via McIntyre’s climateaudit.org website.
- 33.
In two videos on YouTube, Berkeley physics professor, Richard Muller, provides an excellent overview of the issue, as well as a scathing attack on the climate scientists responsible (see: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BQpciw8suk and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5m6KzDnv7k (viewed April 9, 2011)). It should be noted that Fig. 3.10 is not exactly the same as the figure in the IPCC report as it is only meant to demonstrate how the ‘trick’ (as it was described in the climategate emails) was implemented.
- 34.
This is evident from the figures on pages 467–468, 475, 477 and 479 of the IPCC WGI (2007). Each of the figures still has temperatures rising rapidly during the 1900s and into the twenty-first century. The McIntyre-McKitrick critique of the hockey stick is summarily dismissed (IPCC WGI 2007, p. 466) with a reference to a paper by Wahl and Ammann (2007) that had not yet appeared and an incorrect reference to a paper by Wahl et al. in Science (2006) to which MM were not permitted to respond. The IPCC authors ignored the Wegman report and other research supporting MM. Indeed, one of the IPCC’s review editors (gatekeepers) believed the methods used to derive the hockey stick result were biased, giving statistically insignificant results; yet, he signed off on the paleoclimatic chapter, thereby agreeing that the hockey stick constituted a ‘reasonable assessment’ of the evidence (Montford 2010, pp. 446–447).
- 35.
A colleague suggested that the CRU was simply so overwhelmed with requests to access the data under Freedom of Information (FOI) that they could not possibly respond to all such requests. This argument is specious because data, computer code, etc. could easily have been made available on the internet (available data are currently dispersed across various sites); further, climategate emails indicate that requests came before FOI became an issue and that the number of requests was not onerous. Indeed, climategate emails strongly suggest that there was a deliberate attempt to prevent ‘outsiders’ from accessing the data.
- 36.
Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/contents.htm (viewed April 17, 2010).
- 37.
Reported in the San Francisco Chronicle, October 15, 1997 at (as viewed October 19, 2009): http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/metsul_special_report_to_icecap_al_gores_inconvenient_mistake/
- 38.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/11/crus_source_code_climategate_r.html (viewed February 18, 2010).
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van Kooten, G.C. (2013). Climate Science and Paleoclimatology. In: Climate Change, Climate Science and Economics. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4988-7_3
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