Abstract
A methodology to use climate change information in water resources evaluation is developed through a meaningful case study in southern Italy (the Apulia region). The problem of the effective information of climate model simulations with respect to small scale impact studies is developed taking into account the limited predictive capability of climate models. Therefore downscaling and bias-correction requirements are treated through a specific methodology based on a quantile variable correction adopting ground based observation of climate variables. The meteorological forcing for the impact study are obtained through the downscaling of atmospheric variables produced by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) called Protheus. The impact assessment on the water balance of the Apulia region (southern Italy) revealed a marked increase in the variability of hydrologic regimes (both runoff and groundwater recharge) as consequence of the increased rainfall variability predicted for the twenty-first century, while preserving a decreasing in the annual trend. Moreover, the analysis of climate change effects was performed focusing on the rainfall-discharge process of a strategic karst spring supplying the Apulia aqueduct. In this case study, no substantial variations in the annual mean discharge are recognized, although a marked decrease in the mean monthly discharge was found between October and December, which represent the start of the recharge period of Apennine aquifers. Such results represent a crucial water management issue that has to be addressed in terms of adaptation to meet future water resources requirements.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration guidelines for Âcomputing crop water requirements, Food and Agriculture Organization Irrigation and drainage paper 56, Roma, 300 pp
Atckinson TC (1977) Diffuse flow and conduite flow in limestone terrain in Mendip-Hills, Somerset (Great Britain). J Hydrol 35:93–110
Artale V, Calmanti S, Carillo A, Dell’Aquila A, Herrmann M, Pisacane G, Ruti PM, Sannino G, Struglia MV, Giorgi F, Bi X, Pal JS, Rauscher S (2009) An atmosphere-ocean regional climate model for the mediterranean area: assessment of a present climate simulation. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0691-8
Burlando P, Rosso R (2002) Effects of transient climate change on basin hydrology. 1. Precipitation scenarios for the Arno River, central Italy. Hydrol Process 16:1151–1175
Cubasch U, Waszkewitz J, Hegerl G, Perlwitz J (1995) Regional climate changes as simulated in time-slice experiments. Clim Chang 31:273–304
De Girolamo AM, Limoni PP, Portoghese I, Vurro M (2001) Utilizzo di Tecniche GIS per la Valutazione del Bilancio Idrogeologico. Applicazione della Metodologia alla Penisola Salentina. L’Acqua 2:57–70
De Girolamo AM, Limoni PP, Portoghese I, Vurro M (2002) Il bilancio idrogeologico delle idrostrutture pugliesi: sovrasfruttamento e criteri di gestione. L’Acqua 3:33–45
Déqué M (2007) Frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes over France in a anthropogenic scenario: model results and statistical correction according to observed values. Glob Planet Chang 54(1–2):16–26
Frei C, Christensen JH, Déqué M, Jacob D, Jones RG, Vidale PL (2003) Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models: evaluation and intercomparison for the European Alps. J Geophys Res 108(D3):4124–4143
Fowler HJ, Blenkinsopa S, Tebaldib C (2007) Review linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling. Int J Climatol 27:1547–1578
Hamon WR (1963) Computation of direct runoff amounts from storm rainfall. Int Assoc Sci Hydrol Publ 63:52–62
Labat D, Manginb A, Ababoua R (2002) Rainfall–runoff relations for karstic springs: multifractal analyses. J Hydrol 256(3–4):176–195
Masciopinto C (2005) Pumping-well data for conditioning the realization of the fracture aperture field in groundwater flow models. J Hydrol 309(1–4):210–228
Polemio M, Casarano D (2004) Rainfall and drought in Southern Italy (1821–2001). In The basis of Civilization – Water Science? IAHS Pub 286:217–227
Portoghese I, Uricchio V, Vurro M (2005) A GIS tool for hydrogeological water balance evaluation on a regional scale in semi-arid environments. Comput Geosci 31–1:15–27
Thornthwaite CW (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr Rev (Am Geogr Soc) 38(1):55–94
Wilby RL, Wigley TML, Conway D, Jones PD, Hewitson BC, Main J, Wilks DS (1998) Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output: a comparison of methods. Water Resour Res 34:2995–3008
Wilby RL, Hay LE, Gutowski WJ Jr, Arritt RW, Takle ES, Pan Z, Leavesley GH, Clark MP (2000) Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output. Geophys Res Lett 27:1199–1202
Wood AW, Leung LR, Sridhar V, Lettenmaier DP (2004) Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs. Clim Chang 62:189–216
Acknowledgments
This research was undertaken under the European Union funded project CIRCE (FP6 Project No. 036961).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2012 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
About this paper
Cite this paper
Vurro, M., Portoghese, I., Bruno, E. (2012). Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Management with Particular Emphasis on Southern Italy. In: Quercia, F., Vidojevic, D. (eds) Clean Soil and Safe Water. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-2240-8_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-2240-8_3
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-007-2239-2
Online ISBN: 978-94-007-2240-8
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)