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Game Theoretic Modeling of Pilot Behavior during Mid-Air Encounters

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Book cover Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers

Part of the book series: Intelligent Systems Reference Library ((ISRL,volume 28))

Abstract

We show how to combine Bayes nets and game theory to predict the behavior of hybrid systems involving both humans and automated components. We call this novel framework “Semi Network-Form Games”, and illustrate it by predicting aircraft pilot behavior in potential near mid-air collisions. At present, at the beginning of such potential collisions, a collision avoidance system in the aircraft cockpit advises the pilots what to do to avoid the collision. However studies of mid-air encounters have found wide variability in pilot responses to avoidance system advisories. In particular, pilots rarely perfectly execute the recommended maneuvers, despite the fact that the collision avoidance system’s effectiveness relies on their doing so. Rather pilots decide their actions based on all information available to them (advisory, instrument readings, visual observations). We show how to build this aspect into a semi network-form game model of the encounter and then present computational simulations of the resultant model.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Carnegie Mellon University Silicon Valley, NASA Ames Research Park, Mail Stop 23-11, Moffett Field, CA, 94035

    Ritchie Lee

  2. NASA Ames Research Center, Mail Stop 269-1, Moffett Field, CA, 94035

    David Wolpert

Authors
  1. Ritchie Lee
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  2. David Wolpert
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Adaptive Systems, Institute of Information Theory and Automation of the ASCR, PO Box 18, 18208, Praha 8, Czech Republic

    Tatiana Valentine Guy

  2. Institute of Information Theory and Automation of the ASCR, PO Box 18, 18208, Praha 8, Czech Republic

    Miroslav Kárný

  3. Intelligent Systems Division Ames Research Center, NASA, Mail Stop 269-1, 94035, Moffett Field, CA, USA

    David H. Wolpert

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© 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

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Lee, R., Wolpert, D. (2012). Game Theoretic Modeling of Pilot Behavior during Mid-Air Encounters. In: Guy, T.V., Kárný, M., Wolpert, D.H. (eds) Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers. Intelligent Systems Reference Library, vol 28. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-24647-0_4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-24647-0_4

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-24646-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-24647-0

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

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