Skip to main content

Prediction and Mitigation of Crush Conditions in Emergency Evacuations

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:

Summary

Several simulation environments exist for the simulation of large-scale evacuations of buildings, ships, or other enclosed spaces. These offer sophisticated tools for the study of human behaviour, the recreation of environmental factors such as fire or smoke, and the inclusion of architectural or structural features, such as elevators, pillars and exits. Although such simulation environments can provide insights into crowd behaviour, they lack the ability to examine potentially dangerous forces building up within a crowd. These are commonly referred to as crush conditions, and are a common cause of death in emergency evacuations.

In this paper, we describe a methodology for the prediction and mitigation of crush conditions. The paper is organised as follows. We first establish the need for such a model, defining the main factors that lead to crush conditions, and describing several exemplar case studies. We then examine current methods for studying crush, and describe their limitations. From this, we develop a three-stage hybrid approach, using a combination of techniques. We conclude with a brief discussion of the potential benefits of our approach.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   169.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. J. Sime. Escape behaviour in fires and evacuations. In Design Against Fire, Chapman & Hall, London, 1994.

    Google Scholar 

  2. W. Grosshandler, N. Bryner, D. Madrzykowski, and K. Kuntz. Report of the technical investigation of the station nightclub fire. Technical report, NIST, 2005.

    Google Scholar 

  3. E. Comeau and R.F. Duval. Dance hall fire Gothenburg, Sweden, October 28, 1998. Technical report, National Fire Protection Association, 2000.

    Google Scholar 

  4. Final report on the collapse of the World Trade Center towers. Technical report, NIST, 2005.

    Google Scholar 

  5. J. Fruin. Pedestrian Planning and Design. Metropolitan Association of Urban Designers and Environmental Planners, Alabama, 1971.

    Google Scholar 

  6. IMO. Interim guidelines for evacuation analyses for new and existing passenger ships. Technical report, International Maritime Organisation, 2002.

    Google Scholar 

  7. J. Sime. An occupant responses escape time (ORET) model. In Proceedings of the First International Symposium, 1998.

    Google Scholar 

  8. J. Wilgoren. 21 die in stampede of 1,500 at Chicago nightclub. New York Times, 18.02.2003.

    Google Scholar 

  9. The Hillsborough stadium disaster: final report. Technical report, U.K. Home Office, 1989.

    Google Scholar 

  10. E. Kuligowski. Review of 28 egress models. In Workshop on Building Occupant Movement During Fire Emergencies, 2004.

    Google Scholar 

  11. P.A. Thompson and E.W. Marchant. A computer model for the evacuation of large building populations. Fire Saf. J., 24:131–148, 1995.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. D. Helbing, I. Farkas, and T. Vicsek. Simulating dynamical features of escape panic. Nature, 407:487–490, 2000.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. J.-M. Kuusinen. Group behavior in FDS+evac evacuation simulations. Published online, August 2007.

    Google Scholar 

  14. J. Kleijnen and R. Sargent. A methodology for fitting and validating metamodels in simulation. Eur. J. Oper. Res., 120:14–29, 2000.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  15. M. Beekman, D.J.T. Sumpter, and F.L.W. Ratnieks. Phase transition between disordered and ordered foraging in Pharaoh’s ants. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 98(17):9703–9706, 2001.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. M. Longair. Theoretical Concepts in Physics: An Alternative View of Theoretical Reasoning in Physics, 2 edition. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2003.

    Google Scholar 

  17. A. Kraskov, H. Stogbauer, and P. Grassberger. Estimating mutual information. Phys. Rev. E, 69, 2004.

    Google Scholar 

  18. R. Wicks, S. Chapman, and R. Dendy. Mutual information as a tool for identifying phase transitions in dynamical complex systems with limited data. Phys. Rev. E, 75(5), 2007.

    Google Scholar 

  19. T. Vicsek, E. Ben-Jacob, A. Czirok, I. Cohen, and O. Shochet. Novel type of phase transition in a system of self-driven particles. Phys. Rev. Lett., 75:1226, 1995.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. M.H. Hassoun. Fundamentals of Artificial Neural Networks. MIT Press, Cambridge, 1995.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  21. A. Kehagias and V. Petridis. Predictive modular neural networks for time series classification. Neural Netw., 10(1):31–49, 1997.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. J. Wittenburg. Dynamics of Multibody Systems: Dynamics of Systems of Rigid Bodies. Springer, Berlin, 2007.

    Google Scholar 

  23. R. van Zon and J. Schofield. Numerical implementation of the exact dynamics of free rigid bodies. J. Comput. Phys., 225:145–164, 2007.

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  24. L.U. Chunxia. Analysis of compressed force in crowds. J. Transp. Eng. Inf., 7(2):98–103, 2007.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Martyn Amos .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Harding, P.J., Amos, M., Gwynne, S. (2010). Prediction and Mitigation of Crush Conditions in Emergency Evacuations. In: Klingsch, W., Rogsch, C., Schadschneider, A., Schreckenberg, M. (eds) Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 2008. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-04504-2_18

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics