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The Political Economy of Thermidor in Syria: National and International Dimensions

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Syria: From National Independence to Proxy War

Abstract

It is widely understood that the social base for discontent with the Syrian government emerged amongst impoverished Sunni rural areas and slums surrounding mid-size cities. This chapter traces the disembedding through which the social policies upon which the Ba’ath initially emplaced were slowly rolled back. It situates the Ba’ath pact with the peasantry in the world-historical context of Arab nationalism and the global rise of anti-systemic movements from 1917 onwards. It traces developmental decay—the policy changes and political ecology through which the Ba’ath gradually broke its alliance with the peasantry and the urban working class. Instead of limiting this passive revolution to the national plane, I situate it in a wider historical arc within which the gains of the Arab nationalist movements all slowly evaporated.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    See, e.g. Amer Mohsen, “Syria: The ‘comforting’ narratives of the conflict,” Al Akhbar English, May 22 2014, available at: http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/19880.

  2. 2.

    Andreas Wimmer and Nina Glick Schiller, “Methodological Nationalism, the Social Sciences, and the Study of Migration: An Essay in Historical Epistemology,” The International Migration Review 37, no. 3 (2003): 576–610.

  3. 3.

    Sandra Halperin, Re-Envisioning Global Development: A Horizontal Perspective (Routledge, 2013), 11; Dietrich Rueschemeyer, Evelyn Huber Stephens, and John D. Stephens discuss the centrality of working-class struggle to achieving democracy: Capitalist Development and Democracy (University of Chicago Press, 1992).

  4. 4.

    See discussion in John Walton, Reluctant Rebels: Comparative Studies of Revolution and Underdevelopment (Columbia University Press, 1984), 171ff.

  5. 5.

    Bassam Haddad, Business Networks in Syria: The Political Economy of Authoritarian Resilience (Stanford University Press, 2011).

  6. 6.

    John Gerard Ruggie, “International Regimes, Transactions, and Change: Embedded Liberalism in the Postwar Economic Order,” International Organization 36, no. 02 (1982): 379–415.

  7. 7.

    Garay Paul Menicucci, “The Russian Revolution and Popular Movement in Syria in the 1920s” (Ph.D., Georgetown University, 1994), 210.

  8. 8.

    Patrick Seale, The Struggle for Syria: A Study of Post-War Arab Politics, 1945–1958 (Oxford University Press, 1965).

  9. 9.

    Menicucci, “The Russian Revolution and Popular Movement in Syria in the 1920s,” 213–214.

  10. 10.

    Raymond A. Hinnebusch, Authoritarian Power and State Formation in Baʻthist Syria: Army, Party, and Peasant (Westview Press, 1990), 79.

  11. 11.

    Fadi A. Bardawil, When All This Revolution Melts into Air: The Disenchantment of Levantine Marxist Intellectuals (Columbia University, 2010), 101, fn16.

  12. 12.

    Hinnebusch, Authoritarian Power and State Formation in Baʻthist Syria, 89.

  13. 13.

    Safouh Akhrass, Revolutionary Change and Modernization in the Arab World: A Case from Syria (Atlas, 1972), 160–161.

  14. 14.

    Raymond Hinnebusch, Syria: Revolution From Above (Routledge, 2004), 46.

  15. 15.

    “Revolution and Liberation: 100 Years since the October Revolution, 50 Years since the Arusha Declaration,” Agrarian South: Journal of Political Economy 6, no. 2 (August 1, 2017): vii–xi.

  16. 16.

    Akhrass, Revolutionary Change and Modernization in the Arab World, 171.

  17. 17.

    Ibid.

  18. 18.

    Ziad Keilany, “Land Reform in Syria,” Middle Eastern Studies 16, no. 3 (1980): 209–224, 211.

  19. 19.

    Ibid., 212.

  20. 20.

    Raymond Hinnebusch, “The Ba’th’s Agrarian Revolution (1963–2000), pp. 3–14, in Hinnebusch et al., “Agriculture and Reform in Syria,” Syria Studies 3, no. 1 (December 16, 2013): 1–79.

  21. 21.

    Alasdair Drysdale, “The Regional Equalization of Health Care and Education in Syria since the Ba’thi Revolution,” International Journal of Middle East Studies 13, no. 1 (1981): 93–111, 95.

  22. 22.

    Hanna Batatu, Syria’s Peasantry, the Descendants of Its Lesser Rural Notables, and Their Politics (Princeton University Press, 2012), 56.

  23. 23.

    Ibid., 58.

  24. 24.

    David Waldner, State Building and Late Development (Cornell University Press, 1999), 19.

  25. 25.

    Ibid., 185.

  26. 26.

    Ali Kadri, The Unmaking of Arab Socialism (Anthem Press, 2016), 124–125.

  27. 27.

    Hanna Batatu, Syria’s Peasantry, the Descendants of Its Lesser Rural Notables, and Their Politics (Princeton University Press, 2012), 47.

  28. 28.

    Ibid., 82.

  29. 29.

    Rami Ginat, “The Soviet Union and the Syrian Ba’th Regime: From Hesitation to Rapprochement,” Middle Eastern Studies 36, no. 2 (2000): 150–171.

  30. 30.

    Malcolm H. Kerr, The Arab Cold War: Gamal ’Abd Al-Nasir and His Rivals, 1958–1970 (Oxford University Press, 1971).

  31. 31.

    Immanuel Wallerstein, The Politics of the World-Economy (Cambridge University Press, 1984), 84; Michal Kalecki, Essays on Developing Economies (Humanities, 1979), 30–40. Wallerstein also writes, total autonomy is not at all possible, since strict autarky would mean a “major economic sacrifice” for the leading cadre—a particularly pertinent point in the case of what Kalecki called “intermediate regimes,” with developmentalist projects but in a murky ideological grey zone between the capitalist and former communist countries.

  32. 32.

    Ali Kadri, Arab Development Denied: Dynamics of Accumulation by Wars of Encroachment (Anthem Press, 2015), 212.

  33. 33.

    Cited in Timothy Mitchell, Carbon Democracy: Political Power in the Age of Oil (Verso, 2011); Albert B. Wolf, “The Arab Street: Effects of the Six-Day War,” Middle East Policy 22, no. 2 (June 1, 2015): 156–167.

  34. 34.

    Hinnebusch, Authoritarian Power and State Formation in Baʻthist Syria, 136.

  35. 35.

    Ibid., 136.

  36. 36.

    Ibid., 137.

  37. 37.

    Joe Stork, “Review,” Middle East Journal 48, no. 3 (July 1, 1994): 553–556; Ali Kadri, Arab Development Denied: Dynamics of Accumulation by Wars of Encroachment (Anthem Press, 2015).

  38. 38.

    Matias Vernengo, “From Capital Controls to Dollarization: American Hegemony and the US Dollar,” Monetary Integration and Dollarization: No Panacea, 2006, 245, 1.

  39. 39.

    Peter Gowan, The Global Gamble: Washington’s Faustian Bid for World Dominance (Verso, 1999), 19ff.

  40. 40.

    Linda Matar, The Political Economy of Investment in Syria (Springer, 2016), 99. The inflationary and redistributive consequences of this for Syria are detailed below.

  41. 41.

    Ibid., 19ff, 99.

  42. 42.

    David Waldner, State Building and Late Development (Cornell University Press, 1999), 117.

  43. 43.

    In Harriet Friedmann, “The Political Economy of Food: The Rise and Fall of the Postwar International Food Order,” American Journal of Sociology, 1982, S248–S286; the author explains the Soviet emergence into the world wheatmarket as the reason behind this spike.

  44. 44.

    Waldner, State Building and Late Development, 118–120.

  45. 45.

    Volker Perthes, The Political Economy of Syria Under Asad (I.B.Tauris, 1997), 89.

  46. 46.

    Hinnebusch, Authoritarian Power and State Formation in Baʻthist Syria, 208.

  47. 47.

    Ibid., 208.

  48. 48.

    Myriam Ababsa, “Contre-Réforme Agraire et Conflits Fonciers En Jazîra Syrienne (2000–2005),” Revue Des Mondes Musulmans et de La Méditerranée, no. 115–116 (2006): 211–230.

  49. 49.

    Matar, The Political Economy of Investment in Syria; Kadri, Arab Development Denied.

  50. 50.

    Batatu, Syria’s Peasantry, the Descendants of Its Lesser Rural Notables, and Their Politics, 53; Volker Perthes, The Political Economy of Syria Under Asad (I.B.Tauris, 1997), 89.

  51. 51.

    Although the tractors are privately owned, they were heavily funded by the state. The mechanisation of agriculture in Syria during that period up until the 2000s was supported by the state through state banks and managed by the state through cooperatives. The state subsidised and provided loans to agrarian collectives in order to buy tractors to sell it to famers at subsidised prices, and thus they appear “private” in character but they are publicly funded and sponsored.

  52. 52.

    Batatu, Syria’s Peasantry, 53.

  53. 53.

    Ibid., 53.

  54. 54.

    Batatu, Syria’s Peasantry, the Descendants of Its Lesser Rural Notables, and Their Politics, 57.

  55. 55.

    Ibid., 57.

  56. 56.

    Ibid., 57.

  57. 57.

    Ibid., 57.

  58. 58.

    Ibid., 58.

  59. 59.

    Bassam Haddad, “The Syrian Regime’s Business Backbone,” Middle East Report 42, no. 262 (2012).

  60. 60.

    Bassam Haddad, Business Networks in Syria: The Political Economy of Authoritarian Resilience (Stanford University Press, 2011), 79ff.

  61. 61.

    Batatu, Syria’s Peasantry, 58–59.

  62. 62.

    Hans Hopfinger, “Capitalist Agro-Business in a Socialist Country? Syria’s New Shareholding Corporations as an Example,” British Society for Middle Eastern Studies. Bulletin 17, no. 2 (1990): 162–170.

  63. 63.

    F. H. Lawson, “Social Bases for the Hamah Revolt,” MERIP Reports, no. 110 (1982): 24–28; H. Batatu, “Syria’s Muslim Brethren,” MERIP Reports, no. 110 (1982): 12–36.

  64. 64.

    Alexander Sarris and Alessandro Corsi, “The Syrian Agricultural Producers: Structural and Distributional Features,” in Ciro Fiorillo, Jacques Vercueil, and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, eds., Syrian Agriculture at the Crossroads, FAO Agricultural Policy and Economic Development Series 8 (Rome: Policy Assistance Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2003), 281–307, 298.

  65. 65.

    “Agriculture in Syria: Towards the Social Market” (World Bank, June 2008).

  66. 66.

    Sarris and Corsi, “Syrian Agricultural Producers,” 302.

  67. 67.

    Alexander Sarris, Agricultural Development Strategy for Syria (FAO Project GCP/SYR/006/ITA, the National Agricultural Policy Center (NAPC), Damascus, 2001).

  68. 68.

    Ibid., 18.

  69. 69.

    Peter Wehrheim, Taxation and Net Transfers to the Agricultural Sector, Project GCP/SYR/006/ITA Assistance in Institutional Strengthening and Agricultural Policy (Damascus, Syria) December, 2001, 49. The problems of method are clear in the report’s title: “sector.” But the sector is an effect of the accounting and measuring devices which produce it—there is no reason to assume it is salient with respect to understanding the social origins or social outcomes of policies.

  70. 70.

    Jamal Barout, The Past Decade in Syria: The Dialectical of Stagnation and Reform, Doha, Qatar.

  71. 71.

    Hinnebusch, R., 2012: Syria: from ‘authoritarian upgrading’ to revolution? International Affairs, 88.1, 95–113, 97. Hinnebusch is one of the few scholars who consistently emphasises the world-historical factors underlying the gradual Ba’athinfitah.

  72. 72.

    Ibid., 99.

  73. 73.

    Ibid., 99.

  74. 74.

    N. Forni, “Land Tenure and Labour Relations. Chapter 12,” FAO Agricultural Policy and Economic Development Series (FAO), 2003, 330.

  75. 75.

    Ibid., 330.

  76. 76.

    USAID.

  77. 77.

    Michael Westlake, “The Economics of Strategic Crops. Chapter 6,” FAO Agricultural Policy and Economic Development Series (FAO), 2003; 147.

  78. 78.

    Syrian Statistical Yearbook, 2009.

  79. 79.

    M. A. Fadil et al., “Macroeconomic Policies for Poverty Reduction: The Case of Syria,” Damascus: UNDP, 2007, 6.

  80. 80.

    Ibid., 7.

  81. 81.

    Ibid., 7.

  82. 82.

    Ibid., 7.

  83. 83.

    Francesca De Châtel, “The Role of Drought and Climate Change in the Syrian Uprising: Untangling the Triggers of the Revolution,” Middle Eastern Studies 50, no. 4 (July 4, 2014): 521–535, https://doi.org/10.1080/00263206.2013.850076.

  84. 84.

    Ababsa, “Contre-Réforme Agraire et Conflits Fonciers En Jazîra Syrienne (2000–2005)”; Myriam Ababsa, “Crise agraire, crise foncière et sécheresse en Syrie (2000–2011),” Maghreb – Machrek No 215, no. 1 (July 15, 2013): 101–122.

  85. 85.

    Colin P. Kelley, Recent and Future Drying of the Mediterranean Region: Anthropogenic Forcing, Natural Variability and Social Impacts (Columbia University, 2014), 77, 81.

  86. 86.

    De Châtel, “The Role of Drought and Climate Change in the Syrian Uprising,” 521–522.

  87. 87.

    Colin P. Kelley et al., “Climate Change in the Fertile Crescent and Implications of the Recent Syrian Drought,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, March 2, 2015, 201421533, doi:10.1073/pnas.1421533112, 3241.

  88. 88.

    E. Erian, Bassem Katlan, and Ouldbdey Babah, “Drought Vulnerability in the Arab Region,” Special Case Study: Syria. Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva: United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, 2010, http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/bgdocs/Erian_Katlan_%26_Babah_2010.pdf, 15.

  89. 89.

    Ibid., 7.

  90. 90.

    The mechanism for this inflation is not clear, given consumer subsidies for food and especially cereal products.

  91. 91.

    Hannu Juusola, “The Internal Dimension of Water Security: The Drought Crisis in The Northeastern Syria,” MARI L., Managing, 2010, http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/124615/ichaptersection_singledocument/784e0ae7-0bd6-42d6-83f3-f2ca58edd42e/en/ch_1.pdf, 24.

  92. 92.

    UNICEF, Multidimensional Poverty in Syria, A Comparative Research 2001, 2009, June 2014, 27, 31.

  93. 93.

    Khalid Abu-Ismail, Ali Abdel-Gadir, and Heba El-Laithy, “Poverty and Inequality in Syria,” accessed July 8, 2016, http://www.undp.org/content/dam/rbas/doc/poverty/BG_15_Poverty%20and%20Inequality%20in%20Syria_FeB.pdf, 24–26.

  94. 94.

    Matar, The Political Economy of Investment in Syria, 128–129.

  95. 95.

    Hannu Juusola, “The Internal Dimension of Water Security: The Drought Crisis in The Northeastern Syria,” MARI L., Managing, 2010, http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/124615/ichaptersection_singledocument/784e0ae7-0bd6-42d6-83f3-f2ca58edd42e/en/ch_1.pdf, 32.

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  1. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA

    Max Ajl

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    Linda Matar  & Ali Kadri  & 

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    Ali Kadri

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Ajl, M. (2019). The Political Economy of Thermidor in Syria: National and International Dimensions. In: Matar, L., Kadri, A. (eds) Syria: From National Independence to Proxy War. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-98458-2_10

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