The USA and Eastern Europe

Abstract

This chapter analyzes the role of the USA in the East European security complex and its possible future evolution. At the systemic level of analysis, there is the key linkage between the ‘pivot to Asia’ required by China’s geopolitical rise and the ‘reset’ of the relations with Russia needed in order to transfer resources to the Pacific. At the individual level, there are President Trump’s personality traits and ensuing worldview, which includes hostility to China and admiration for President Putin. In between, at the state level of analysis, there are the opposition of the US establishment to a Kremlin-friendly foreign policy and the critical issue of the Russiagate scandal. Four possible scenarios ensue, ranging between moderate hostility toward and grand alignment with Moscow.