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Pakistan: The Belt and Road’s Soft Underbelly

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Part of the book series: Global Political Transitions ((GLPOTR))

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Abstract

Straddling Pakistan’s borders with Iran and Afghanistan, Balochistan, a crown jewel in China’s One Belt, One Road initiative that links the Middle Kingdom’s restive Xinjiang region to the Gulf, has been sucked into the vortex of Saudi-Iranian rivalry as a launching pad for potential US-backed Saudi efforts to destabilize Iran. Both Saudi Arabia and Iran exploit long-standing regional grievances that are magnified by Chinese investment and employment policies in Balochistan.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Geo News, Former COAS Raheel Sharif departs for Riyadh to head Saudi-led military alliance, 21 April 2017, https://www.geo.tv/latest/138930-Former-COAS-Raheel-Sharif-departs-for-Riyadh-to-head-Saudi-led-military-alliance

  2. 2.

    Interview with the author, 12 May 2017

  3. 3.

    Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia , Remarks Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir Munich Security Conference Munich, Germany 19 February 2017, http://www.mofa.gov.sa/sites/mofaen/aboutMinistry/Minister/PressConferences/Pages/ArticleID2017220124736828.aspx

  4. 4.

    Ben Hubbard, Dialogue With Iran Is Impossible, Saudi Arabia’s Defense Minister Says, The New York Times, 2 May 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/02/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-iran-defense-minister.html?_r=0

  5. 5.

    Adrienne Mahsa Varkiani, Tillerson calls for regime change in Iran , ThinkProgress, 16 June 2017, https://thinkprogress.org/tillerson-calls-for-regime-change-in-iran-ad2ded82f945

  6. 6.

    General Joseph L. Votel , Statement of General Joseph L. Votel on the Posture of US Central Command , US Central Command , 9 March 2017, http://www.centcom.mil/ABOUT-US/POSTURE-STATEMENT/

  7. 7.

    Matthew Rosenberg and Adam Goldman, C.I.A. Names New Iran Chief in a Sign of Trump’s Hard Line, The New York Times, 2 June 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/02/world/middleeast/cia-iran-dark-prince-michael-dandrea.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share&_r=0

  8. 8.

    Reuters, Iran says Saudis back terrorism after senior prince attends rebel rally, 10 July 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-saudi-rebels-idUSKCN0ZQ0E5

  9. 9.

    Mohammed Hassan Husseinbor, Chabahar and Gwadar Agreements and Rivalry among Competitors in Baluchistan Region, Journal of Iranian Studies, Vol. 1:1, pp. 82–99, https://arabiangcis.org/english/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/05/Chabahar-and-Gwadar-Agreements-and-Rivalry-among-Competitors-in-Baluchistan-Region.pdf

  10. 10.

    Elizabeth Roche, India , US demand dismantling of terror infrastructure in Pakistan, livemint, 25 October 2017, http://www.livemint.com/Politics/fodI9SjFngz56U1Ea1ZkqI/Rex-Tillerson-India-US-stand-shoulder-to-shoulder-in-fight.html

  11. 11.

    Rumour Team, Pakistan approved $2 Billion Gwadar Project Linking its Gas Network’s to Iran ’s, Rumour News, 1 October 2016, http://www.rumournews.in/world/29951/pakistan-approves-2-billion-gwadar-project-linking-its-gas-network-to-irans/

  12. 12.

    Associated Press of Pakistan, Pakistan signs 40-year deal with China for Gwadar port operation, 21 April 2017, https://tribune.com.pk/story/1389486/pakistan-signs-40-year-deal-china-gwadar-port-operation/

  13. 13.

    G. Parthasarathy, Watch out for China’s naval aggression, The Hindu Business Line, 9 March 2016, http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/g-parthasarathy/watch-out-for-chinas-naval-aggression/article8332134.ece

  14. 14.

    Danish Hyder and Mushtaq Khan, CPEC : The devil is not in the details, Herald, 11 January 2017, http://herald.dawn.com/news/1153597/cpec-the-devil-is-not-in-the-details

  15. 15.

    Frederic Grare, Pakistan: The Resurgence of Baluch Nationalism, Carnegie Papers, January 2006, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/CP65.Grare.FINAL.pdf

  16. 16.

    Arif Rafiq, China’s $62 Billion Bet on Pakistan, Letter from Gwadar , Foreign Affairs, 24 October 2017, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2017-10-24/chinas-62-billion-bet-pakistan?cid=nlc-fa_twofa-20171026

  17. 17.

    Australian Associated Press, Gwadar deep-water port nears completion, 18 April 2016, https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/gwadar-deep-water-port-nears-040116880.html

  18. 18.

    Zafar Bhutta, Kuwait wins approval for setting up oil refinery in Balochistan , Dawn, 10 September 2016, https://tribune.com.pk/story/1179648/kuwait-wins-approval-setting-oil-refinery-balochistan/

  19. 19.

    Zafar Bhutta, Kuwait agrees to build oil pipeline in Pakistan, Dawn, 10 March 2017, https://tribune.com.pk/story/1351241/kuwait-agrees-build-oil-pipeline-pakistan/

  20. 20.

    Agence France-Presse, Baloch ire prompts security fears for China -Pakistan Economic Corridor, 21 April 2015, https://tribune.com.pk/story/873432/baloch-ireprompts-security-fears-for-china-pakistan-economiccorridor/

  21. 21.

    Sudha Ramachandran, CPEC takes a step forward as violence surges in Balochistan , Asia Times, 16 November 2016, http://www.atimes.com/cpec-takes-step-forward-violence-surges-balochistan/?platform=hootsuite

  22. 22.

    Baqir Sajjad Syed, COAS vows to meet CPEC projects’ security challenges, Dawn, 12 March 2017, https://www.dawn.com/news/1319964/coas-vows-to-meet-cpec-projects-security-challenges

  23. 23.

    Maqbool Ahmed, Worrying development: Field notes on war and peace in Balochistan , Herald, 13 May, 2016, https://herald.dawn.com/news/1153381/worrying-development-field-notes-on-war-and-peace-in-balochistan

  24. 24.

    Saeed Shah, Chinese-Pakistani Project Tries to Overcome Jihadists, Droughts and Doubts, The Wall Street Journal, 10 April 2016, https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-chinese-pakistani-project-tries-to-overcome-jihadists-droughts-and-doubts-1460274228

  25. 25.

    James M. Dorsey, Fighting Militants in Pakistan: Who Is In Charge?, RSIS Commentary, 2 November 2016, https://mideastsoccer.blogspot.co.uk/search?q=Quetta

  26. 26.

    Interview with the author, 2 February 2017

  27. 27.

    Robert D. Kaplan, China’s Port in Pakistan? Foreign Policy, 27 May 2011, https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/05/27/chinas-port-in-pakistan/

  28. 28.

    C. Christine Fair, Does Pakistan Have a Madrasah Problem? Insights from New Data, SSRN, 20 July 2015, http://ssrn.com/abstract=2468620

  29. 29.

    Hafeez Jamali, States of dispossession: plot, parchi and the politics of place in Gwadar , Pakistan, Lecture, Habib University, 18 March 2017

  30. 30.

    Interview with the author, 10 January 2017

  31. 31.

    Ibid. Grare

  32. 32.

    Senate of Pakistan, Report of the Parliamentary Committee on Balochistan , November 2005, http://www.senatedefencecommittee.com.pk/publication-detail.php?pageid=publication&rid=MTE=

  33. 33.

    Shehzad Baloch, CPEC promises the moon but Gwadar just wants water, The Express Tribune, 13 April 2017, https://tribune.com.pk/story/1381944/cpec-promises-moon-gwadar-just-wants-water/

  34. 34.

    Dawn, Balochistan killings, 17 November 2017, https://www.dawn.com/news/1371063

  35. 35.

    Syed Irfan Raza, Senate panel wants Pakistan’s interests fully protected under CPEC , Dawn, 1 March 2017, https://www.dawn.com/news/1317736/senate-panel-wants-pakistans-interests-fully-protected-under-cpec

  36. 36.

    International Crisis Group, Pakistan: The Worsening Conflict in Balochistan , 14 September 2006, https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/119-pakistan-the-worsening-conflict-in-balochistan.pdf

  37. 37.

    Ray Fulcher, Balochistan : Pakistan’s internal war, Green Left Weeklu, 23 November 2006, https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/balochistan-pakistans-internal-war

  38. 38.

    C. Christine Fair and Ali Hamza, Rethinking Baloch Secularism: What the Data Say, Academia, 30 January 2017, https://www.academia.edu/31544654/Rethinking_Baloch_Secularism_What_the_Data_Say_1?campaign=upload_email

  39. 39.

    Ahmar Mustikhan, Half million Chinese to take Gwadar by 2023: Report, The Times of India Blogs, 30 October 2017, https://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/balochistan-insight/half-million-chinese-to-take-gwadar-by-2023-report/

  40. 40.

    The Herald, The Great Land Robbery, June 2008

  41. 41.

    Ibid. The Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry

  42. 42.

    Interview with the author, 10 January 2017

  43. 43.

    Zhao Lijian, Twitter, 20 December 2016, https://twitter.com/zlj517/status/810942127077257216

  44. 44.

    Interview with the author, 8 May, 2017

  45. 45.

    Balochwarna News, Balochistan: Pakistani military operation continue ahead of by-elections in Kech, 20 December 2015, http://balochwarna.com/2015/12/30/balochistan-pakistani-military-operation-continue-ahead-of-by-elections-in-kech/

  46. 46.

    Ibid. Shah

  47. 47.

    Interview with businessman involved in the Gwadar project, 27 February 2017

  48. 48.

    Dawn, Pakistan, Iran on verge of establishing strong economic ties, 9 March 2017, https://www.dawn.com/news/1319360/pakistan-iran-on-verge-of-establishing-strong-economic-ties

  49. 49.

    Giorgio Cafiero and Daniel Wagner, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan’s Evolving Alliance, The National Interest, 19 November 2015 http://nationalinterest.org/feature/saudi-arabia-pakistans-evolving-alliance-14391?page=show

  50. 50.

    Author’s interview with Masoom Yasinzai, rector of the International Islamic University of Islamabad, 28 July 2016

  51. 51.

    Hudson Institute, The Iranian Mosaic: The Struggle of Minorities for Pluralism and Federalism in Iran , 16 May 2017, https://www.hudson.org/events/1426-the-iranian-mosaic-the-struggle-of-minorities-for-pluralism-and-federalism-in-iran52017

  52. 52.

    James M. Dorsey, Two conferences spotlight Muslim world’s struggle to counter militancy, The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer, 23 May 2017, https://mideastsoccer.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/two-conferences-spotlight-muslim-worlds.html

  53. 53.

    Interview with the author, 14 May 2017

  54. 54.

    Jahanzaib Haque and Omer Bashir, Banned outfits in Pakistan operate openly on Facebook, Dawn, 30 May 2017, https://www.dawn.com/news/1335561/banned-outfits-in-pakistan-operate-openly-on-facebook

  55. 55.

    Interview with the author, 16 May 2017

  56. 56.

    Interview with the author, 10 June 2017

  57. 57.

    Fahim Hamed, A three-way summit in Riyadh (قمة الرياض ثلاثية الأبعاد.. عزل إيران عالميا), Okaz, 9 May, 2017, http://okaz.com.sa/article/1545466

  58. 58.

    US Department of the Treasury, Treasury Targets Pakistan-Based Terrorist Leaders and Facilitators, 11 May 2017, https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/sm0080.aspx

  59. 59.

    Interview with Pakistani militant, 13 May 2017

  60. 60.

    Ibid. US Department of the Treasury

  61. 61.

    Muhammad Akbar Notezai, Balochistan’s Battle for Ideas, Dawn, 21 April, 2017, https://www.dawn.com/news/1327327/balochistans-battle-for-ideas

  62. 62.

    Interview with Abdullah Khan, 9 January 2016

  63. 63.

    Ibid. Notezai

  64. 64.

    Ibid. Notezai

  65. 65.

    Ibid. Notezai

  66. 66.

    Ibid. Shuster

  67. 67.

    Seymour M. Hersh, Preparing the Battlefield, The New Yorker, 27 July 2008, http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2008/07/07/preparing-the-battlefield

  68. 68.

    Ibid. Hersh

  69. 69.

    Reuters, Who are Iran ’s Jundollah Rebels, 23 February 2010, https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/factbox-who-are-irans-jundollah-rebels

  70. 70.

    Ian Black, Iran captures Sunni insurgent leader Abdolmalek Rigi , The Guardian, 23 February 2010, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/feb/23/iran-abdolmalek-rigi-arrest

  71. 71.

    Alex Vatanka, Iran and Pakistan, Security, Diplomacy, and American Influence, London/New York: I. B. Tauris, 2015, p. 236

  72. 72.

    Interview with the author, 15 May 2017

  73. 73.

    James Risen and Matt Apuzzo, Getting Close to Terror, but Not to Stop It, The New York Times, 8 November 2014, https://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/11/09/world/despite-cia-fears-thomas-mchale-port-authority-officer-kept-sources-with-ties-to-iran-attacks.html?_r=1&referrer

  74. 74.

    Thomas Erdbrink, Insurgents in Pakistan Stepping Up Iran Strikes, The New York Times, 9 October 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/10/world/asia/pakistan-sunni-insurgents-step-up-attacks-in-iran.html

  75. 75.

    Meir Javedanfar, Saudi-Backed Salafists Returning to Iran ’s Border? Al Monitor, 30 October 2013, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/10/sp-iran-saudi-salafists-javedanfar.html

  76. 76.

    US Department of State, Foreign Terrorist Organizations, https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/other/des/266649.htm

  77. 77.

    Ibid. Risen and Apuzzo

  78. 78.

    Umar Farooq, The Dangerous Drug-Funded Secret War Between Iran and Pakistan, The Daily Beast, 29 December 2014, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/12/29/the-dangerous-drug-funded-secret-war-between-iran-and-pakistan.html

  79. 79.

    Ibid. Farooq

  80. 80.

    Reuters, Militants kill 10 Iranian border guards in attack on frontier with Pakistan, 26 April 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/26/militants-kill-ten-iranian-border-guards-in-attack-on-frontier-with-pakistan

  81. 81.

    Iran Front Page, Saudi State TV Defends Terrorists, Calls Iran “Occupying Regime,” 14 May 2017, http://ifpnews.com/exclusive/saudi-call-iran-occupy-regime/#.WRgicKzSeV4.twitter

  82. 82.

    James M. Dorsey, The US-Saudi Plot For Iran that Spells Trouble for China’s Silk Road, South China Morning Post, 27 May 2017, https://mideastsoccer.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/the-us-saudi-plot-for-iran-that-spells.html

  83. 83.

    James M. Dorsey, Walking a tightrope: China maneuverers between Saudi Arabia and Iran , The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer, 9 March 2017, https://mideastsoccer.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/walking-tightrope-china-maneuverers.html

  84. 84.

    James M. Dorsey, Why Saudi Arabia , China and Islamic State are Courting the Maldives, South China Morning Post, 13 March 2017, https://mideastsoccer.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/why-saudi-arabia-china-and-islamic.html

  85. 85.

    Gui Liping, “Belt and Road” construction projects bring benefits to Saudis, ECNS, 10 May 2017, http://www.ecns.cn/business/2017/05-10/256838.shtml

  86. 86.

    Ahwaz Monitor, Ahwazi Arabs Support Their Football Team in Courageously National Style, 18 March 2017, http://www.ahwazmonitor.info/new/ahwazi-arabs-support-their-football-team-in-courageously-national-style/

  87. 87.

    Email exchange with the author, 3 June 2017

  88. 88.

    Email exchange with the author, 3 June 2017

  89. 89.

    Email exchange with the author, 3 June 2017

  90. 90.

    Nasser Karimi, Iran warns Saudi prince for bringing ‘battle’ to Iran remark, Agence France Press, 8 May 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-warns-saudi-prince-for-bringing-battle-to-iran-remark/2017/05/08/417a810e-33b6-11e7-ab03-aa29f656f13e_story.html

  91. 91.

    Daniel R. Coats, Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 11 May 2017, https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/os-coats-051117.pdf

  92. 92.

    James M. Dorsey, Challenging the state-Pakistani militants form deadly alliance, The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer, 17 February 2017, https://mideastsoccer.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/challenging-state-pakistani-militants.html

  93. 93.

    FE Online, This is the speech by PM Modi on Kashmir, PoK and Balochistan that has left Pakistan fuming, 13 August 2016, http://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/this-is-the-speech-by-pm-modi-on-kashmir-pok-and-balochistan-that-has-left-pakistan-fuming/347071/

  94. 94.

    The Tribune Express, 20 Baloch insurgents surrender, confess receiving RAW funding: ISPR, 21 March 2017, https://tribune.com.pk/story/1361642/20-baloch-insurgents-surrender-confess-receiving-raw-funding-ispr/

  95. 95.

    James M. Dorsey, BRICS potentially strengthens Trumps hand in tackling Pakistani support of militants, The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer, 5 September 2017, https://mideastsoccer.blogspot.sg/2017/09/brics-potentially-strengthens-trumps.html

  96. 96.

    Peter Lee, Taliban force a China switch, Asia Times, 6 March 2009, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/KC06Ad01.html

  97. 97.

    Dawn, Jamaat to preach Islam in China , says Qazi, 4 April 2009, https://www.dawn.com/news/971085

  98. 98.

    Xinhua, Full text of Xiamen Declaration of BRICS leaders, 5 September 2017, http://www.chinadailyasia.com/articles/44/150/109/1504582539856.html

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Dorsey, J.M. (2019). Pakistan: The Belt and Road’s Soft Underbelly. In: China and the Middle East. Global Political Transitions. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-64355-7_6

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