Abstract
Landslide mitigation measures are used to reduce the risk affecting mountain communities. The quantitative estimation of the change or reduction in risk, after implementing mitigation measures, requires modeling of past events and the forward prediction of possible future occurences. However, the forward-prediction of landslide hazard is subjected to uncertainties due to the lack of knowledge on some key aspects like the possible source volume that can be triggered and model parameters that determine the landslide runout. In this study, a back-analysis of a debris flow event was carried out using MassMov2D to create a set of parameter ranges for forward-predicting runouts with mitigation measures. We approached the issue of uncertainty by systematically sampling parameters from wide ranges and running hundreds of different runout scenarios. Simulations from back-analysis were compared with the forward-predicted models to determine changes in the spread and intensity of debris flows affecting elements at risk (e.g. houses and roads). This study is a first step towards a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) being carried out within the EC FP-7 funded CHANGES network (Grant Agreement No. 263953).
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Acknowledgments
The work in this paper is part of the CHANGES project, a Marie Curie Initial Training Network funded by the European Commission’s 7th Framework Programme (Grant Agreement No. 263953). We acknowledge our gratitude to all our collegues at CNR-IRPI (Padova and Perugia) who continuely support us in this ongoing research. We thank the Civil Protection (Palmanova) and Geological Survey (Trieste) of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region for their data sharing and cooperation. Finally, many thanks go to Dr. Chiara Calligaris (Department of Mathematics and Geosciences, University of Trieste) for sharing her important experience on surveying and modelling of landslides in our study area.
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Hussin, H.Y. et al. (2014).
Assessing the Effect of Mitigation Measures on Landslide Hazard Using 2D Numerical Runout Modelling.
In: Sassa, K., Canuti, P., Yin, Y. (eds) Landslide Science for a Safer Geoenvironment. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05050-8_105
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05050-8_105
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