Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The Science of Doom: Modeling the Future

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Before the Collapse

  • 1166 Accesses

Abstract

This chapter discusses how the models used to understand the future are built, what they are for, what they tell us, and what their limits are in warning us about collapses to come. It includes a section on why people tend to disbelieve models that predict collapse.

Forecasts are not always wrong; more often than not, they can be reasonably accurate. And that is what makes them so dangerous. They are usually constructed on the assumption that tomorrow’s world will be much like today’s. They often work because the world does not always change. But sooner or later forecasts will fail when they are needed most: in anticipating major shifts in the business environment that make whole strategies obsolete.

—Pierre Wack [1]

I will not die one minute before God has decided.

—Mike Ruppert, Crossing the Rubicon [2]

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 29.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 37.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Wack, P.: Scenarios: uncharted waters ahead. Harv. Bus. Rev. https://hbr.org/1985/09/scenarios-uncharted-waters-ahead. Last accessed, Aug 31, 2019 (1985)

  2. Ruppert, M.C.: Crossing the Rubicon: the decline of the American empire at the end of the age of oil. New Society Publishers (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  3. Musa, G.: Terrestrizzazione. In: Musa, G., Cremaschi, I. (eds.) I Labirinti del Terzo Pianeta. Nuova Accademia Editrice (1964)

    Google Scholar 

  4. Forrester, J.W.: Counterintuitive behavior of social systems. Simulation 16, 61–76 (1971)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Shields, L.B.E., Hunsaker, J.C., Stewart, D.M.: Russian roulette and risk-taking behavior. Am. J. Forensic Med. Pathol. 29, 32–39 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Ellemberg, J.: How the financial markets fell for the martingale, a 400-year-old sucker bet. Slate. Available at http://www.slate.com/articles/life/do_the_math/2008/10/were_down_700_billion_lets_go_double_or_nothing.html. Accessed 2 Sept 2016 (2008)

  7. Phillips, D., Welty, W., Smith, M.: Elevated suicide levels associated with legalized gambling. Suicide Life-Threat. Behav. 27, 373–378 (1997)

    Google Scholar 

  8. Tversky, A., Kahneman, D.: Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychol. Bull. 76, 105–110 (1971)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J., Bherens III, W.: The Limits to Growth. Universe Books (1972)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Nordhaus, W.D.: World dynamics: measurement without data. Econ. J. 83, 1156–1183 (1973)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Forrester, J.: World Dynamics. Wright-Allen Press (1971)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Bardi, U.: The Limits to Growth Revisited. Springer (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  13. Nordhaus, W.: Lethal Models. Brookings Pap. Econ. Act. 2, 1–59 (1992)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Solow, R.: Technical change and the aggregate production function. Q. J. Econ. 70, 65–94 (1956)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Turner, G.: A comparison of the limits to growth with 30 years of reality. Glob. Environ. Chang. 18, 397–411 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Zetetic Method: Rational theoretical standard wiki. Available at https://rationaltheory.fandom.com/wiki/Zetetic_Method. Accessed 22 Mar 2019

  17. Letzer, R.: One conspiracy theory at a time: flat-earthers don’t reject climate science. LiveScience. Available at https://www.livescience.com/63470-flat-earth-climate-science.html. Accessed 18 Apr 2019 (2018)

  18. Arrhenius, S.: On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground. Philos. Mag. J. Sci. (fifth Ser.) 41, 237–275 (1896)

    Google Scholar 

  19. Bardi, U. Where is the proof that CO2 warms the Earth? Cassandra’s Legacy. Available at https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2018/02/where-is-proof-that-co2-warms-earth.html. Accessed 21 Mar 2019 (2018)

  20. Makarieva, A.M., Gorshkov, V.G., Li, B.-L.: Precipitation on land versus distance from the ocean: evidence for a forest pump of atmospheric moisture. Ecol. Complex. 6, 302–307 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Deshmukh, S., Murthy, J.: Nightfall: Can Kalgash Exist, arXiv:1407.4895 (2014)

  22. Laskar, J., Gastineau, M.: Existence of collisional trajectories of Mercury, Mars and Venus with the Earth. Nature 459, 817–819 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Palyulin, V.V., Chechkin, A.V., Metzler, R.: Levy flights do not always optimize random blind search for sparse targets. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 111, 2931–2936 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Zagorsky, J.L.: Economics Bulletin, 36(1), 401–410 (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  25. Saltelli, A.: Sensitivity analysis for importance assessment. Risk Anal. 22, 579–590 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Papert, S.: Mindstorms: Computers, Children, and Powerful Ideas. Basic Books, NY (1980)

    Google Scholar 

  27. Taleb, N.: The Black Swan. Random House (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  28. Gladwell, M.: The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference: Malcolm. Back Bay Books (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  29. Sornette, D., Ouillon, G.: Dragon-kings: mechanisms, statistical methods and empirical evidence. Eur. Phys. J. 205, 1–26 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  30. Hansen, J.: Climate catastrophe. New Sci. 195, 30–34 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Goldblatt, C., Watson, A.J.: The runaway greenhouse: implications for future climate change, geoengineering and planetary atmospheres. Philos. Trans. A. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci. 370, 4197–4216 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Antilla, L.: Self-censorship and science: a geographical review of media coverage of climate tipping points. Public Underst. Sci. 19, 240–256 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Tversky, A., Kahneman, D.: Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185, 1124–1131 (1974)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Asch, S.E.: Opinions and social pressure. Sci. Am. 193, 31–35 (1955)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Hamilton, L.C., Haedrich, R.L., Duncan, C.M.: Above and below the water: social/ecological transformation in Northwest Newfoundland. Popul. Environ. 25, 195–215 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Chemistry, University of Florence, Florence, Italy

    Ugo Bardi

Authors
  1. Ugo Bardi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ugo Bardi .

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Bardi, U. (2020). The Science of Doom: Modeling the Future. In: Before the Collapse. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-29038-2_1

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation